Fact Pack! On the Spectrum

By Hightower Las Vegas and RCG Economics on November 12, 2024

We expect it is not news to Fact Pack readers that the Associated Press called Nevada and Arizona for President-elect Donald Trump over the weekend. That brought the final 2024 electoral vote tally to 312-226 and completed Trump’s sweep of all seven swing states. Trump looks to be headed toward winning the popular vote as well, with roughly 74.8 million (50.4 percent) votes to Kamala Harris’s 71.2 million (48 percent). 

Economic Expectation Nation 

As the nation adjusts to what’s likely. to come under a Trump Administration, the New York Fed’s numbers for October for a variety of metrics gauging forward-looking sentiment are worth noting. 

• Median inflation expectations fell. 

• One-year-ahead expectations declined by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9%. 

• Three-year-ahead expectations declined by 0.2 percentage point to 2.5%. 

• Five-year-ahead expectations declined by 0.1 percentage point to 2.8%. 

• Median home price growth expectations were unchanged at 3.0%. 

• Year-ahead commodity price expectations declined by 

• 0.2 percentage point for gas to 3.2%. 

• 0.2 percentage point for food to 4.3%. 

• Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations were 2.8% — unchanged from the prior month. 

• Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 34.5%, the measure’s lowest reading since February 2022. 

• The mean perceived probability of finding a job (if one’s current job was lost) increased by 3.3 percentage points to 56.0%, the measure’s highest reading since October 2023. This increase was most pronounced for respondents with a high school education or less.  

• The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 13.9%, the first decrease since May 2024. The decrease was most pronounced for those under the age of 40. This series remains above its 12-month trailing average of 12.6%.  

• Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago improved in October, with a rising share of households reporting a better situation relative to those reporting a worse situation. Similarly, year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations improved in October.  

Nevada’s seasonally adjusted “headline” unemployment rate increased 0.1 points in September. Relative to September 2023, the state gained 33,100 total payroll jobs (up 2.1%). Of those positions, 26,500 were private payroll jobs (a 1.9% increase).  

As of September 2024 

Of note: The Other Services and Information sectors in Nevada have grown for the past four consecutive months. The Construction sector has grown the most, though, and has generated 10,000 jobs Year-over-Year. 

Many more numbers including Las Vegas metro and Reno-Sparks snapshots for September (and prior months) are here. 

Political Polarization 

As we wait to see whether Republicans can log four more wins in uncalled races and keep control of the House, we note with interest a Statista Consumer Insights survey on political polarization in the U.S. In the year preceding the 2024 presidential election, 30 percent of Americans said they consider themselves to be on the far left or far right of the political spectrum. 

• 11% of respondents said they saw themselves on the far left 

• 19% identified as far right 

Graph: 

As of September 2024 

Notably, Americans surveyed by Statista were less likely to identify with Republicans or Democrats than in the past. In the 2024 U.S. election, exit poll data suggests that the number of registered nonpartisans was roughly equal to the number of Republicans.  

Tariffs 

Goldman Sachs assembled a graph showing index reactions around the globe to tariff talk in 2018 and 2019: 

Slightly Less Serious Stat 

Dogecoin traded more than Microsoft and Amazon combined yesterday as the crypto market continued to do its happy dance: 

As of 11/11/24 

BitcoinBTC hit a record high ($88,000), but that pinnacle was overshadowed in some headlines by $18 billion in dog-themed meme coin trading. Only Tesla ($73 billion) and Nvidia ($26 billion) held their spots in/among Big Tech. 

As of 11/11/24 

First-time Homebuyers 

The median homebuyer age jumped to 56 over the past year, according to the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) 2024 Profile of Homebuyers and Sellers which covers transactions between July 2023 and June 2024. 

First-time buyers had an average age of 38, an all-time high and a full three years older than the prior year. Other highlights: 

• The average down payment for first-time homebuyers was 9% — the highest since 1994. 

• The median household income for first-time home buyers was $97,000. 

• Price mattered: 22% of first timers settled on a smaller home than they wanted, 32% compromised on location, and 28% compromised on features. 

Change 

This Visual Capitalist graph illustrating how American households have changed since the 1960s is interesting in a variety of ways: 

As of 2023 

Notable numbers: 

• In 1960, the share of U.S. households that consisted of married parents was a little more than 44% — today the number is just shy of 20%. 

• The share of households that are single parents or single with no kids roughly doubled over the same period. 

• The U.S. fertility rate dropped to a historic low of 1.6 children per woman in 2023, well below the 2.1 replacement level required to sustain population. 

In 2023, adults living in households with children under age 6 spent an average of 2.3 hours per day providing primary childcare to household children, per BLS numbers. 

As of 2023 

For Sale: 1 GB 

Price variations for mobile data across the world are not small: 

As of January 2024 
 

In 2024, the number of mobile phone users reached 5.6 billion (69.4 percent of the world’s population). 

Homelessness  

As Veterans Day celebrations made headlines over the past few days, we gladly noted the relative success of a joint program of the VA and HUD created in 2010: The number of homeless veterans was reduced by roughly 50 percent (as of the end of 2023). 

Six months before the voucher-type rental assistance program was announced, HUD reported a count of more than 70,000 homeless veterans cross the country — many of whom were struggling to transition back to civilian life and find jobs after sustaining injuries or struggling with PTSD. 

As of 2023 

In addition to stats on unsheltered veterans, HUD’s 2023 report on homelessness contains a vast array of data and a variety of graphs. 

As of 2023 

Trends: 

As of 2023 

By demographic group: 

As of 2023 

Part and Parcel 

Amazon Logistics has carved out a bigger market share than either UPS or FedEx: 

As of 2023 

The race to deliver more stuff faster includes adding tech that supports same-day delivery, a sub-market expected to grow by 20 percent in the next year. 

• Amazon recently got FAA approval to fly its smaller delivery drones in Arizona. 

• In January, WalMart expanded its drone-delivery service area in Dallas-Fort Worth, at the time the largest drone-delivery footprint of any U.S. retailer. 

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On the Horizon 

Mike PeQueen: We are still obsessed with the inflation reports coming Wednesday and Thursday as the tension seems to be growing between Fed Chair Jerome Powell and President-elect-again Donald Trump. After Powell’s curt “no” when asked whether he would resign if asked to do so by President Trump, investors became wary of a showdown that could upset markets. President Trump would like to exercise control over monetary policy (historically the Fed’s domain) as well as fiscal policy (historically the President’s and Congress’s domain), but Powell seems to feel strongly that Fed independence should not be compromised. This one may take a while to fully unfurl. We’ll keep an eye on it.