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By Hightower Las Vegas and RCG Economics on November 17, 2023

Unemployment rates were higher in October in 26 states and stable in 24 states and Washington, D.C., per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Twenty-one states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier, 12 states and D.C. had increases, and 17 states saw little change. The national “headline” unemployment rate, 3.9 percent, changed little over September, and over the year. Highlights/lowlights:

Maryland had the lowest jobless rate in October (1.7 percent) and was the state with the largest year-over-year decrease (-1.5 percentage points).
The next lowest rate was in North Dakota (1.9 percent).
Nevada had the highest unemployment rate (5.4 percent).
New Jersey had the largest year-over-year rate increase (+1.3 percentage points).

As of October 2023; Source: HubScore

By industry Bureau of Labor Stats graphic:

Nevada Jobs

In October, as noted above, the seasonally adjusted “headline” unemployment rate in Nevada was unchanged at 5.4 percent. The labor force in the state once again grew, this time by about 7,000 workers, according to the Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation (DETR). Nearly all that growth was driven by increases in employment as the number of unemployed individuals only grew by about 600.

The state also saw growth in its number of jobs. The total non-farm employment in Nevada increased by about 5,500 and the Leisure and Hospitality industry continued its recovery by adding 1,600 jobs over the month.

The Reno MSA saw an increase of 800 nonfarm jobs (or 0.3 percent) over September. Las Vegas MSA total nonfarm employment saw an increase of 1,600 jobs (0.1 percent).

Graphs and tables from DETR, all as of October 2023:

Unemployment Rate State Rankings

As noted already, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Nevada had the highest unemployment rate among states for the month of September 2023 — 5.4 percent, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than the second highest (California). New Jersey, Illinois, and Texas rounded out the “top” five for that metric:

That said, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Nevada also had the largest over-the-year percentage increase in non-farm payrolls in September 2023 (3.4 percent). Narrowly trailing Nevada was Texas, where an increase of 3.2 percent. Idaho, Wyoming, and South Dakota rounded out the top five:

Nevada Unemployment

In October, 10,276 initial claims for unemployment insurance were filed in Nevada, an increase of 1422 claims, or 16.1 percent, from September. The figure is also an increase from the 8,658 claims filed in October of 2022. Graphed data as of October 2023:

Over-the-year claims activity for Nevada’s regular program saw increases across most measures in October. The number of weeks compensated increased by 12,967, resulting in $37.8 million in benefit payments, an increase of 20.3 percentage points from September 2023.

First payments totaled 4,976 in October, up 14.4 percentage points over the month. Final payments, also known as benefit exhaustions, increased to 2,108, up 27.2 percentage points from September.

Retail Sales

Overall retail sales slipped only incrementally in October, falling just a tenth of a percent from its upwardly revised level for the prior month. Wells Fargo graph:

As of October 2023

As Vegas F1 race approaches, questions loom over lofty economic projection

So reads this recent headline from The Nevada Independent. F1 weekend has been cheered as a billion-dollar event, but race tickets and hotel room rates in Las Vegas have fallen sharply in recent weeks. Example:

According to TickPick, a secondary market resale provider, costs for a Las Vegas Grand Prix ticket have declined steadily… A ticket to Saturday’s race now costs $771, a 53 percent decline from the original price.

And:

Weekend room rates once soared above $2,000 a night for properties such as Aria, Bellagio, and Caesars Palace immediately after the race was announced. Since that time, they have dropped to the point where a guest is paying roughly the same figure as any other weekend for a three-night stay. 

Survey Says…

According to a Bitcoin Casinos report on consumer ratings and reviews by Trip Advisor users, OYO Hotel & Casino is the dirtiest resort in Las Vegas, with 28 percent of TripAdvisor reviews including the word “dirty” or some equally not-great synonym or phrase. The Mansion at MGM Grand is the cleanest — only 4.1 percent of reviews included unclean keywords.

File OYO under You Get What You Pay For: The weekday price at the casino is around $30 dollars per night (but weekend rates go as high as $170 per night, which may explain the ire of one guest who titled his review “Hotel from Hell”.

As of November 2023

Other hotel casinos that were not loved by guests when it came to cleanliness:

Excalibur
Luxor
Flamingo
Circus Circus

And a few of those that were:

NoMad
Encore At Wynn
Wynn
Skylofts at MGM Grand

Real Estate Market

Real estate tech platform RealtyHop has released its November Affordability Index — a measure focused on whether homeownership is affordable or even possible for the average American family in the 100 largest U.S. cities. Here are the markets where its hardest:

As of November 2023

Other findings:

Homeowners in 67 out of the 100 major cities analyzed spend more than 30 percent of their annual income on homeownership.

In the 25 most unaffordable housing markets nationwide, homeowners spend 40 percent or more of their income on homeownership costs.

Multigenerational Data

The first American Indian Day was celebrated in May 1916 in New York. The event culminated an effort by Red Fox James, a member of the Blackfeet Nation, who rode across the nation on horseback seeking approval from 24 state governments to have a day to honor American Indians. In 1990, more than seven decades later, then-President George H.W. Bush signed a joint congressional resolution designating the month of November “National American Indian Heritage Month.” Similar proclamations have been issued every year since 1994 to recognize what is now called “American Indian and Alaska Native Heritage Month.”

So reads this page from the Census Bureau, which also provides this graphic:

As of 2020

Other stats:

The nation’s American Indian and Alaska Native population alone or in combination in 2020 was 9.7 million.

The number of distinct, federally recognized American Indian reservations in 2022, including federal reservations and off-reservation trust lands, was 324. The number of federally recognized Indian tribes in 2023 is 574.

1.5 million people identified as Cherokee in the 2020 Census, making it the largest American Indian (alone or in any combination) population group in the U.S.

Navajo Nation was the most common American Indian alone response with 315,086 people.

9,026 people identified as Yup’ik (an Eskimo tribe).

Tlingit was the largest Alaska Native (alone or in any combination) group with 22,601 people.

Coming to America

The pandemic saw international enrollment at U.S. higher education institutions dip, but the number of international students recovered in the academic year of 2022-23, aided in part by a bigger influx from India.

Though still below pre-pandemic levels, the Open Doors Report on International Education Exchange counted 1.06 million international students in the country in the past school year, an increase of 11.5 percent over 2021-2022 and 15.7 percent over 2020-21.

International students make up 5.6 percent of the total U.S. student population, up from 4.6 percent one year prior. Statista graph:

As of January 2023

Immigrant Labor Outcomes

In several OECD nations, including the U.S., immigrants are less likely to be unemployed than people born in the country. For many other OECD members, though, the opposite is true and native-born populations are outperforming migrants in the labor market.

According to information in the recently released OECD International Migration Outlook 2023 and shared by Statista, the unemployment rates of immigrants are below those of native-born populations in Australia, New Zealand, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica and Slovakia. The biggest gaps in favor of immigrants were in Costa Rica and Chile, with immigrants’ unemployment rate averaging 1.5 percentage points lower than that of native-born residents.

On the other hand, Mexico had a migrant unemployment rate 1.1 percentage points higher than that of native-born Mexicans.

As of December 2022

OECD data confirms that tight labor markets generally tend to work in favor of migrants, as do larger city environments. Another factor is a country’s immigration policy, where high quotas for work visas can lead to fewer unemployment of migrants.

Next Week

Fact Pack will be dark on Monday, Nov. 27^th following Thanksgiving weekend. We’ll return in full force on Monday, Dec. 4.

Fun Thanksgiving Day Facts

From the Census Bureau:

On the Horizon

Mike PeQueen: We have at least four Fed officials speaking publicly next week, which often leads to market movements, along with the release of the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the PCE deflator. Will it match the consumer price index and show inflation continuing to cool or will we see six more weeks (or months) of interest rate winter?

This week’s economic calendar from MarketWatch: