Fact Pack!
By Hightower Las Vegas and RCG Economics on May 17, 2024
A Gallup survey conducted April 1-22 showed the high cost of living as the most mentioned financial problem facing families. The 41 percent of Americans naming the issue, unprompted — that number is a high point since the question was first asked in 2005 — was up slightly from a year ago (35 percent) and up 32 percent over 2022.
As of 4/22/24
The full set of responses:
As of 4/22/24
The Rate
The market is now expecting cuts in September — before the election — and December:
As of 5/15/24
The Election
What a September rate cut would change in terms of electoral outcomes is an unknown, especially with so many Americans feeling less and less optimistic about the economy (Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index was -29 in April, nine points lower than March’s -20 reading) — and also lacking confidence in President Joe Biden to manage things.
The most recent economic confidence reading for Biden (38 percent) is among the lowest Gallup has measured for any president since 2001:
Survey taken 4/1-22/24
In comparison, Gallup found that 46 percent of U.S. adults say have “a great deal” or “a fair amount” of confidence in Trump to do or recommend the right thing for the economy, and independent voters in the survey gave Trump a 45-34 edge over Biden:
Survey taken 4/1-22/24
Bellwether?
Among the seven swingiest swing states — Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and of course, Nevada — several polls show Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump in the November presidential race, even though in Nevada, most survey respondents acknowledge they are doing well.
The latest New York Times/Siena College poll shows Biden losing Nevada by 12 percentage points — though nearly 75 percent of the same respondents said they’re “satisfied” with “the way things are going” in their lives, and Nevada’s economy has done better than the U.S. overall. Bloomberg graph:
As of Q1 2024
And:
As of Q1 2024
This Bloomberg story also noted that Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District, represented by Republican Rep. Mark Amodei, “has emerged as the No. 2 location for clean energy jobs in the US and the 4th-largest for its $9.02 billion investment since the Inflation Reduction Act.”
Mother, Should I Trust the Government?
Yes, that is a Pink Floyd lyric.
Agencies Americans trust graphed by Visual Capitalist and based on Pew Center data:
As of March 2023
Nevada Jobs
In April 2024, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Nevada was unchanged (5.1 percent), according to the Nevada Department Employment and Rehabilitation (DETR).
The labor force grew by 1,153 over the month, the result of an increase of 1,788 and a decrease of 635 in employed individuals. The statewide labor force was 1,615,415 people, an increase of 19,752 since the same month in 2023.
On top of the growth in the number of employed individuals, the state also saw growth in the number of jobs: Non-farm employment in Nevada increased by about 7,000 jobs. Trade, Transportation, Utilities, and Leisure and Hospitality were the industries that saw the most growth.
Year over year snapshot:
Source: DETR As of April 2024
Retail
Retail sales were 0.3 percent lower than expected in April. The takeaway is that consumers are becoming more discerning with spending, which generally slows price increases.
This Macrotrends chart shows total real (inflation-adjusted) retail and food service sales over the past 10 years (using the “headline” consumer price index):
$6,218
The average American consumer now carries $6,218 in credit card debt, and more borrowers — roughly 8.9 percent of credit card balances — are delinquent on payments, per a CNBC report based on Federal Reserve Bank of New York data released last Tuesday.
Collectively, credit card debt has risen to $1.12 trillion:
How Low Can You Go?
States with the lowest GDP:
As of 2023
House Prices
The Case-Shiller National Index increased 6.4 percent year-over-year in February.
February was the 13th consecutive month-over-month increase in the Index:
On the Horizon
Mike PeQueen: Next week we will see three regional Fed presidents speaking on a panel together the day before the meeting minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting are released. After this week’s upbeat CPI report, the minutes may reveal how that data has affected the Fed’s view of when rate cuts should begin.
This week’s MarketWatch calendar:
