Fact Pack!
By Hightower Las Vegas and RCG Economics on July 22, 2024
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ending in June 2024, not seasonally adjusted, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It marked the largest 12-month increase since rising 2.7 percent for the year ending March 2023:
As of June 2024
Prices for final demand services, which made up 67 percent of total final demand, increased 3.5 percent.
- Prices for trade services increased 2.7 percent.
- Transportation and warehousing services prices stayed relatively flat at 0.2 percent.
- Services minus trade, transportation, and warehousing increased 4.2 percent.
Prices for final demand goods accounted for approximately 30 percent of the final demand index and increased 1.0.
- Prices for final demand foods increased 1.1 percent.
- Final demand energy decreased 1.4 percent.
- Final demand goods minus foods and energy increased 1.8 percent.
(For those not familiar with terminology related to price indexes, a simple definition of final demand goods or services are products or services sold to consumers, businesses, or governments.)
Unemployment
Nevada was among the states with the highest unemployment rate at the end of June (dark blue on the map) per the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
As of June 2024
Here’s a screen shot of a nice interactive 12-month rate change graph, also from Bureau of Labor Statistics (Nevada, with a 0.2 percent change, is the small peach-colored circle off to the right and directly below California, the largest circle on the graph, which saw a 0.6 percent change):
As of June 2024
Affordable Housing Construction
Construction Coverage, a website that compares construction software and insurance, just released a new report looking at the U.S. locations building the most affordable new housing.
Researchers who produced the report ranked locations by average construction value per new housing unit authorized in 2023.
Takeaways from the report, with key stats for Nevada:
Decades of low levels of residential construction have created a national shortage of at least 5.5 million homes.
The shortage has driven up prices: between February 2020 and May 2022, the median home sale price surged from $303,000 to $415,000, a 37 percent increase in just over two years.
As of December 2023
Home prices are about 40 percent higher than pre-pandemic levels—but with mortgage rates doubling, the monthly mortgage payment for a median-priced home has more than doubled since early 2020.
Nevada reported an average construction cost of $254,020 per new housing unit, landing it at no. 27 among states and higher than the national average of $241,792:
Infomap of average construction value per home (based on estimates of the value of the physical structure, excluding land value):
Graph and data source: Construction Coverage analysis of Census Bureau data as of December 2023
Delaware had the lowest average construction cost per new residential unit authorized at $143,579, followed by New Jersey and West Virginia at $157,141 and $189,464 per unit, respectively.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, builders in Hawaii have to spend the most: $423,609 average per unit, about 75 percent higher than the national average of $241,792.
Other states with especially high new construction costs included Wyoming ($342,230) and Massachusetts ($334,280).
This table shows the average per-unit cost of construction in some of the major metros:
As of 2023
Least expensive: Richmond, VA ($167,003)
Most expensive: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkley, CA ($327,619)
Here’s the group of metros in which Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise landed:
As of 2023
There is plenty more data available on the Construction Coverage website.
Peak Population Revision
The United Nations has revised its “medium” projection for the coming world population peak from 10.4 billion people in 2086 to 10.3 billion in 2084, and from 10.35 billion to 10.18 billion in 2100:
Graph source: Our World in Data as of 2024; Data source: United Nations World Population Prospects
The UN’s population estimates for the year 2100 for North America and Europe increased, and projections for Asia, Africa, and Latin America were revised downward.
Graph source: Our World in Data as of 2024
Armed Conflicts
In the 33 years between 1989 and 2022, an estimated 3.3 million people across the world — combatants and civilians — died due to fighting in armed conflicts, according to an Our World in Data analysis of data collected by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP).
Graphs:
Graph source: Our World in Data; Data source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP); As of 2022; (Note: The data does not include deaths due to disease or starvation resulting from conflicts.)
Uppsala’s interactive website shows an increase in the number of conflicts beginning in 2009:
Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program as of 2022
As you can see, there have been more non-state conflicts, represented by the green line in the graph, than state-based (red) or one-sided conflicts (yellow).
Notably, the analysis revealed that non-state conflicts caused relatively few deaths even though they were the most common. Interstate conflicts occurred more rarely but were more deadly.
Africa and the Middle East had the highest death rates: 10 times higher than in other regions. Countries with the highest number of deaths were Rwanda (800,000), Syria (400,000) and Afghanistan (320,000).
Graph source: Our World in Data; Data source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP); As of 2022
On the Horizon
Mike PeQueen: Friday’s PCE number will be important after last week’s CPI came in better than expected. Is inflation truly back to where it should be? Can the Fed cut rates in September?
MarketWatch calendar:
