Fact Pack!
By Hightower Las Vegas and RCG Economics on June 24, 2025
The Trump Administration’s proposed fiscal agenda is nearing a vote in the Senate with expectations that it will happen this week. The tax-cut package with decreased federal revenue partially offset by assorted cuts would, as we noted last week, add trillions of dollars to U.S. debt. Republicans hoping to lower the bill’s price tag are at odds with other Republicans worried about budget cuts and phase-outs of incentives that support jobs in their states.
Iran and Other Jurisdiction Updates
The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) has informed U.S. financial institutions that its Financial Action Task Force (FATF) — a body that establishes international standards for anti-money laundering (AML) and countering the financing of terrorism (CFT) and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (CPF) — with its updated list of “jurisdictions with strategic AML/CFT/CPF deficiencies.”
FATF added the British Virgin Islands and Bolivia to, and removed Croatia, Mali, and Tanzania, from its list of Jurisdictions Under Increased Monitoring.
FATF’s list of High-Risk Jurisdictions Subject to a Call for Action remains the same: Iran, North Korea, and Burma.
Home Sales
Existing home sales in the U.S. rose slightly in May but at a pace that confirms the continued existence of a housing market with affordability problems. Contract closings increased 0.8 percent to an annualized rate of 4.03 million last month, only the second increase seen this year, according to data released Monday by the National Association of Realtors.
This set of Bloomberg graphs paint the picture:
As of May 2025
Buyer and Seller Markets
Zillow economists have developed a model known as the Zillow Market Heat Index to gauge the competitiveness of housing markets across the country. It relies on key indicators including home price changes, inventory levels, and days on the market to generate an aggregate score. The following graphic shows the national score over the last 7 years, updated as of May 2025:
Among the 250 largest metro area housing markets, these 10 are where the Zillow index says sellers have the most power, along with their Zillow score:
- Rochester, NY (145)
- Buffalo, NY (110)
- Syracuse, NY (100)
- Charleston, WV (99)
- Albany, NY (97)
- Hartford, CT (89)
- Lansing, MI (85)
- Anchorage, AK (83)
- Springfield, MA (82)
- Manchester, NH (81)
Infomap:
As of May 2025
Among the 250 largest metro area housing markets, these 10 are where the Zillow index says buyers have the most power:
- Macon, GA (23)
- Jackson, TN (24)
- Brownsville, TX (27)
- Gulfport, MS (27)
- Naples, FL (27)
- Longview, TX (27)
- Daphne, AL (29)
- Punta Gorda, FL (29)
- Beaumont, TX (30)
- Cape Coral, FL (31)
In Las Vegas and Reno-Sparks (2018 to May 2025):
As of May 2025
As of May 2025
Click here to scroll over the dots representing metro areas to see the numbers for Mountain West and other metros.
Lumber Futures
As of Monday, June 23, Lumber Futures were at $611.00 per 1,000 board feet, an increase of nearly 28 percent over the same time last year:
As of 6/23/25
Fact Pack co-publisher and economist John Restrepo:
There is always a somewhat seasonal demand for lumber, with prices generally peaking sometime during the first half of the year. Lumber futures have eased a bit since a two-month high of $626 on June 13th, as relatively high mortgage rates curtail buyer demand, which results in decreased builder demand. Prices also decreased because of an expected short-term surge in supply as wholesale sellers and sawmills restock. Most forecasts are for a price increase in Q3 and beyond, driven by expected tariff pressure and some degree of improvement housing demand.
Trading Economics global macro models show lumber is expected to trade at $642.67 per 1,000 board feet by the end of June and is forecast to be trading at $695.32 in 12 months’ time.
Housing Indicators
We’ll be watching for notable changes in the rate of new single-family homes sold in the U.S. when that data is released tomorrow, as well as changes in the residential vacancy rate and homeownership rate near the end of July. Graphs for reference:
As of 4/28/25, 4/28/25, and 5/23/25, respectively
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Other Indicators
May housing starts were down nearly 10 percent from April, business inventories held steady in April over May, and the advance May estimate for retail and food service sales is for a slight (-0.9 percent) decrease from April:
As of 6/18/25, 6/17/25, and 6/17/25, respectively
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Made in the U.S.A.
Faithful Fact Pack readers already know the country’s service sector — including finance, real estate, and healthcare — contributes more to national GDP than goods, but we thought it worth noting that in 2024, services contributed over four times more than goods, as reported and graphed by the team at USAFacts.
- In 2024, the U.S. produced $29.2 trillion in goods and services, with $24.3 trillion (83.3 percent) coming from services and $4.9 trillion (16.7 percent) from goods.
- Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing services accounted for $6.2 trillion (25.5 percent) of all service-based value.
- Professional and business services came in second ($3.8 trillion), followed by educational services, healthcare, and social assistance ($2.5 trillion).
The nation’s primary goods-producing industries are agriculture, mining, construction, and manufacturing, which accounted for 59.8 percent of all U.S.-produced goods in 2024 ($2.9 trillion). Top goods by value added were:
- Chemical products ($575.2 billion)
- Food, beverage, and tobacco products ($350.1 billion)
- Computer and electronic products ($308.3 billion)
As of 2024
Final fact: The U.S. produced about seven times more goods and services than it imported in 2024 — $29.2 trillion compared to $4.1 trillion.
The IRS
The team at USAFacts decided to tally what it costs the IRS to do its tax collecting and found the federal agency has reduced the cost per-dollar collected while collecting more total revenue. It cost the IRS 53 cents to collect $100 in 2010. By 2023, that cost was 34 cents, a 36 percent improvement.
As of 2023
In 2023, the IRS’s 82,990 employees collected nearly $4.7 trillion in taxes, up 26 percent over the previous 10 years:
- $4.1 trillion from individual income taxes and individual payroll contributions
- $457 billion from corporate income taxes
- $74 billion from excise taxes
- $35 billion from estate and gift taxes
In that time, the IRS spent $16.1 billion on operating expenses — 65 percent for salaries and benefits, and 35 percent was for infrastructure, technology, and other operational costs.
Want to know even more about how taxes are collected? Steve Ballmer with USAFacts has much more.
Bashing the Bezos Bash
As the city of Venice prepares for summer tourism season and Jeff Bezos’s $10 million wedding party this week, we noted the following graph with interest:
As of June 2025
In addition to having more beds for tourists than for residents, numerous city grocery and hardware stores have been replaced by bars and souvenir shops, according to a CityLab story entitled Bezos Wedding Draws Protests, Soul-Searching Over Tourism in Venice.
Iceland, which in 2024 saw about six times as many visitors (2.2 million) as it had residents (400,000), is facing similar changes and pressures. Iceland’s supply of long-term housing is decreasing: Nearly 8 percent of all residential housing in its capital is listed on Airbnb, according to a study by AirDNA:
As of Q3 2023
Iceland enacted housing policy last year aimed at building 4,000 apartments annually for the next five years, but demand estimates reported by CityLab show that closer to 5,000 per year are needed — a problem made worse by the increased construction and labor costs along with the highest interest rates in Western Europe (9.25 percent). A 2021 report found that as many as 7,000 people (just under 2 percent of the total population) were living illegally in commercial buildings and other non-residential places.
Meanwhile, many new hotels, restaurants, and shops have opened in Reykjavik in recent years, and the need for workers contributed to national population growth of more than 3 percent in 2022, the most on record.
Notably, many of Iceland’s present-day challenges began in 2009 as the Great Recession in the U.S. was coming to an end. After an economic meltdown led to $100 billion in banking losses and the total collapse of the nation’s currency, the unemployment rate tripled. The following year, Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull volcano erupted, creating an immense ash cloud and shutting down air travel for a week — but from those ashes rose opportunity.
Footage of the eruption and cloud dominated international news, attracting interest in travel to a country that estimated tourism comprised less than 4 percent of total GDP. Government-sponsored tourism campaigns were created and airlines offered up deals to attract travelers to the once-expensive destination. Iceland reported that tourism made up 8.8 percent of GDP in 2023, a number expected to further increase when new data is released
Startup Cities
The San Francisco Bay Area is still the world’s startup capital, thanks to its dominance in AI, big tech, and venture capital funding.
Singapore jumped four spots since last year, in part because OpenAI announced plans to move its Asia-Pacific headquarters to Singapore, and India’s Bangalore and New Delhi jumped ahead of Tokyo, Berlin, and Seattle, ranking 10th and 11th, respectively:
As of 2024
Senior Strongholds
Nations with the highest ratios of senior citizens include Monaco, Japan, Martinique, Puerto Rico and Italy, per this Visual Capitalist graph:
Presidential Residences
We wrap this week’s Fact Pack with an aerial peek at the homes of some former presidents, with photos collected by the team at Daily Passport. Included:
- Overlooking the Hudson River, Springwood in Hyde Park, New York, was the 1882 birthplace, lifelong home, and burial site of our 32nd U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt. After he was diagnosed with polio at the age of 39, the estate’s buildings were outfitted to accommodate his disability, including the addition of a swimming pool, ramps, handrails, and wheelchair accessibility.
- In 1928, Joseph P. Kennedy purchased 6 acres of waterfront land encompassing 3 houses in Hyannis Port, Massachusetts. His nine children — including U.S. President John F. Kennedy — expanded the property into what is now commonly called the Kennedy Compound. For decades, the grounds were the location of family gatherings and celebrations and served as the “Summer White House” from 1961 to 1963 when JFK was in office. The site has since been transformed into a museum and is a National Historic Landmark.
- A native of Southern California, President Richard Nixon attended Duke Law School, practiced law in California, and served as a state senator before moving to Washington, D.C., and becoming president in 1969. That same year, he purchased a 9,000 square-foot Spanish Colonial Revival home on 5.5-acres in San Clemente, not far from his hometown of Yorba Linda. The 450 feet of prime beachfront land and sweeping views of the Pacific Ocean was nicknamed “La Casa Pacifica” and (Kennedy-style) called the “Western White House.” Nixon made it his permanent residence after his resignation following the Watergate scandal in 1974.
On the Horizon
The number of economic reports expected this week are numerous:
