Fact Pack! Business Owners = Cautiously Optimistic

By Hightower Las Vegas and RCG Economics on February 17, 2026

The Optimism Index update released by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) last week dipped slightly month-over-month: from 99.1 in December to 99.3 in January, just above the 52-year average of 98.

Source: NFIB As of January 2026

NFIB-Nevada State Director Tray Abney chalked it up to the permanency of the 20 percent Small Business Tax Deduction and, here in Nevada, regulatory restraint in Carson City.

Caveat: The NFIB’s Uncertainty Index rose 7 points from 84 in December to 91 in January — the highest mark since late 2024. The driver? Business owner caution related to expansion plans, despite a 6-point increase in the Expected Real Sales component of the Index.

Upshot: Business owners are seeing strong present-day consumer demand but are hesitating to expend capital as broader economic and regulatory unknowns hover on the imagined horizon.

Mountain West: “No-Hire, No-Fire”

The Bureau of Labor Statistics last week released January CPI data for the Mountain-Plains region:

• Regional prices rose 0.4 percent in January, up 2.4 percent over the year.
• Energy prices decreased 0.3 percent (thanks to an 11 percent drop in the price of gasoline), but winter electricity and natural gas services surged 8.1 percent and 13.5 percent respectively.

At a recent economic seminar (Feb 4–12) in Montana, some economists characterized the Mountain West regional economy as “no-hire, no-fire.”

Caveat: Some sectors are losing employees, and gains are almost entirely concentrated in Healthcare (+5.4 percent) and Information/Technology (+28 percent).

Mountain West Quick Glance Data

$500M “Non-Dilutive” Injection

Not-small news in Nevada’s mining sector: i-80 Gold Corp has secured a $500 million financing package to accelerate its Nevada development portfolio. The company will use the funds to invest in R&D and retire some debt, and $50 million is earmarked for a 2026-2027 refurbishment of the firm’s Lone Tree plant, per Yahoo! Finance.

Upgrades are expected to eliminate significant “toll milling” charges, which currently cost the company $1,000–$1,500 per mined ounce.

Nevada remains the cornerstone of U.S. gold mining, with projected 2025 output (final data pending) of 155,000 tonnes (5 million ounces). The industry at large is benefitting from record-high gold prices as high as $4,000 per ounce and advancing technologies, including AI-generated geological analysis, enhanced heap leaching, and increased automation. 

Gold exploration in Nevada continues apace, particularly on the Battle Mountain-Eureka Gold Belt, as follows:

• Nevada Gold Mines (Barrick/Newmont JV):  10 underground and 12 open-pit mines. Barrick reported strong Q1 2025 results with a realized gold price of $2,898/oz.

• Nevada King (Atlanta Mine): Updated its mineral resource estimate in June 2025, increasing measured and indicated resources by 122 percent to over 1 million ounces of gold.

• Getchell Gold: Reported a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for its project with a 50 percent internal rate of return (based on a $2,250/oz gold price).

• Nevada Sunrise (Griffon Project): Completed surface exploration in late 2025, targeting past-producing areas.

• McEwen Mining (Gold Bar): Expected production in 2025 was 40,000–45,000 ounces.

The median wage for gold miners across Nevada is approximately $54,000 annually with more than 15,000 jobs in the sector. Major operators offer more competitive salaries averaging around $119,000 annually (as of 2024), often with comprehensive benefits packages.

Typical roles include mining engineers (averaging $137,000 per year), site supervisors ($96,200–$132,200 per year), and electricians ($64,000–$95,680 per year), according to data from the Nevada Mining Association.

Central Bank Buying

Notably, since 2022, central banks across the globe have purchased more than 1,000 tonnes of gold annually. Emerging economies — including China, Turkey, Poland, and India — are leading this trend, signaling a strategy of long-term diversification away from the U.S. dollar:

Source: World Gold Council as of 2025

Gold outpaced the equities field in 2025:

Source: Morningstar

Based on data as of 10/9/2025

Nevada’s Prediction Market Fight

A Nevada judge has barred Polymarket from offering event-based contracts in Nevada. The Gaming Control Board is treating these bets as “unlicensed gambling,” signaling a tightening of regulatory grip.

Tariffs + GDP

A recent Munich Security Report on the global economy included this graph showing the projected 2026 effect on GDP of recent U.S. tariffs for select nations:

Based on 2025 and January 2026 data and projections

Weather Wagers

Unwanted weather has long affected commerce: Mesopotamian Cuneiform records from as far back as 3,000 B.C. included mention of drought-affected grain prices, and we know that in 600 B.C, Thales of Miletus successfully used a weather forecast to corner the olive oil market in Greece.

Today, the world’s increasingly wild and weird weather patterns are making an ever-larger mark on markets and the broader global economy — requiring government officials, business leaders, and traders to bet on the intensity and effects of wind shifts and air temperature.

Example: Dwindling natural gas stockpiles in Europe have traders wagering this week on how much Arctic air will flow into the region, drive some degree of increased demand for heating, and cause increased electricity prices.

Source: severe.weather.eu

Technology plays a role in climate-centric guesstimating: Weather satellites and supercomputer simulations help close watchers note stratospheric warming and weakening polar vortexes 2 to 3 weeks in advance. The 10-day mark is when the real wagering begins, as large-scale air circulation patterns become apparent.

This week’s most-watched U.S. events and regions, via Bloomberg:

• The large winter storm bearing down on California will dump deep snow on high-elevation areas, and heavy coastal rain will likely be accompanied by flooding, tornadoes, and destructive winds in the Los Angeles metro, affecting transportation and trade in one of the biggest commerce hubs in the U.S.

• The cold plunge in New York City and the Northeast U.S. has been keeping low-income residents cooped up and out of stores — and high-income humans are spending money on spa treatments and vacations to more pleasant parts.

Agriculture + AI Defense Strategies

Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA for short) has transitioned from a sustainability buzzword to an effective defense strategy, especially for the American Midwest and West. Examples:

• Precision Irrigation & Yield Monitors: As of early 2026, more than 70 percent of large-scale U.S. crop farms were using AI-driven yield and soil maps.
• Economic Impact: Predictive AI has been credited with reducing U.S. supply chain errors by 20–50 percent.
• Risk: Farmers are securing lower insurance premiums because they can prove they are using “Weather Intelligence” to schedule harvests and plantings around volatile events.

Nevada’s Desert Research Institute is deploying AI tools that process thermal satellite imagery to predict “fire weather” with better specificity than traditional models. Use case: The technology allows logistics companies to reroute trucking fleets out of Northern California and other Mountain West regions days before a “Red Flag Warning” would traditionally have grounded them, preventing scuttled routes that result in increased transport costs.

Raw Materials

Data centers need minerals:

Takeaway: The U.S. is 100 percent import-reliant for several critical minerals used in AI-related infrastructure: arsenic, fluorspar, gallium, germanium, indium, and tantalum — all used in chip production.

History of Wages

Source: Visual Capitalist As of 2025

Recent wage timeline starting in 1659 when historians believe the first-ever check was written:

Source: Visual Capitalist

Got Babies?

The global birth rate was approximately at 16.1 births per 1,000 people in 2025, continuing a decades-long decline. That said, several Sub-Saharan African countries still record rates above 40 per 1,000, among the highest in the world.

Source: Visual Capitalist As of 2024

A glance at the above map suggests a possible edit: Change “Houston” to “Africa” in the NASA-inspired meme, “Houston, we have a problem…” Based on 2026 demographic data and projections from World Bank, there are 28 African nations with a crude birth rate (CBR) above 30 per 1,000 people.

Caveat: Several African countries that have long been high-fertility anchors, including Ethiopia (~29.2) and Eritrea (~27.6), have dropped below the 30-births-per-thousand threshold as modern urbanization and education access increase.

Also notable: Nigeria’s birth rate has stabilized around 32.8 but because of its massive population base (223+ million), it still contributes the largest absolute number of births to the planet annually.

Top 20 countries for high birth rates:

Source: Visual Capitalist As of 2024

Most nations in the Middle East have dipped well below the 30-per-1,000 mark:

• Iraq’s birth rate has recently stabilized around 26 per 1,000.
• Egypt: The region’s most populous nation has successfully pushed its rate down to approximately 22 per 1,000 through aggressive national family planning campaigns.
• The Gulf States (UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia): These nations are seeing rates closer to Western levels. The UAE, for example, is hovering around 10 births per 1,000, with citizen-only fertility (Emirati nationals) hitting historic lows due to high living costs.
• Gaza & West Bank: Traditionally one of the highest rates in the region, birth rates in Gaza have fallen by more than 40 percent amid ongoing conflict and a healthcare system collapse, bringing the territory’s overall rate down toward 25–26 per 1,000, as of 2025 World Bank and UN data.

Yemen is still relatively high growth, but the region is aging faster than previously predicted. Many economic reforms in places including Saudi Arabia are aimed at diversifying the economy before the working-age population begins to shrink. Advanced economies with birth rates below 10 per 1,000 are facing serious concerns about aging populations and shrinking workforces.

Lowest birth rates as of 2024:

Source: Visual Capitalist As of 2024

Global + Local Risk Index

The Munich Security Index 2026 reveals disparity  in the most pressing risks perceived by assorted populations across the globe. Based on a survey of around 1,000 adults per country conducted in November 2025, the report highlights how different nations prioritize threats, ranging from climate change to geopolitical tensions.

The index scores (0 to 100) cover five dimensions of risk: overall impact, trajectory, severity, imminence, and preparedness. Statista graph for select nations:

As of November 2025 survey data

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On the Horizon