Fact Pack! Channeling the Central Bank
By Hightower Las Vegas and RCG Economics on May 31, 2024
Will they, or won’t they? Should we stay or should we go? Yes, we’re (sort of) quoting The Clash as we contemplate last week’s headlines about possible interest-rate cuts — or hikes, thanks to comments from Fed Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari. (Most rate traders are betting on a single rate hike at this point.)
If you’re a wagering sort of person and have been shorting five- to 10-year Treasuries on the premise that the Fed won’t cut rates at all in 2024, here’s a graph for you:
As of 5/31/2024
Jobs
Unemployment rates were higher in April than a year earlier in 305 of the country’s 389 metro areas, lower in 56, and unchanged in 28, per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- 134 metro areas had jobless rates of less than 3.0 percent.
- 10 had rates of at least 8.0 percent.
- Ames, IA; Hattiesburg, MS; and Jackson, MS, had the lowest rates (1.6 percent).
- El Centro, CA, had the highest rate (15.7 percent), up 2.0 percent over April 2023.
- Of the 51 metro areas with a 2010 Census population of 1 million or more, Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN, had the lowest rate (2.2 percent)
- Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV, had the highest (5.2 percent)
Shipping
Getting containers from here to there is getting more expensive, per Chief Global Investment Strategist Jeffrey Kleintop at Charles Schwab:
Shipping costs have surged 30% over the past few weeks from a combination of port-congestion delays in China, changes in voyage time as ships are rerouted away from the Suez Canal and an earlier pickup in peak-season demand due to the resulting longer lead times.
As of 5/29/24
Additionally, on Friday, news broke that the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency is inspecting every ecommerce shipment coming from mainland China on freighters – estimated at 100 freighters a day – leading to airport congestion, delays and the cancellation or suspension of some flights.
Vegas Visitors
April 2024 stats from LVCVA:
Gaming
Nevada’s nonrestricted gaming licensees reported a total gaming win of $1,240,195,370 for the month of April 2024. This amounts to a 6.95 percent increase compared to April 2023. For the fiscal year (July 1, 2023, through April 30, 2024), gaming win has increased 4.67 percent.
- Las Vegas Strip gross gaming revenue (GGR) in April was $666.1 million, up 6.6 percent year over year, per Deutsche Bank Research, which noted that March ending on a Sunday flowed slot revenue into April.
- Las Vegas Locals GGR of $270.2 million in April was up 16.3 percent year over year.
- Red Rock’s Durango again boosted the Balance of Clark County GGR: It was up 24.5 percent Y/Y in April.
- The Boulder Strip was up 8.5 percent Y/Y.
- North Las Vegas was down 3.4 percent Y/Y.
Got Class?
According to a recent Gallup survey, 54 percent of Americans identify as part of the middle class — including 39 percent who say they are “middle class” and 15 percent “upper-middle class.” Another 31 percent consider themselves “working class” and 12 percent identify as “lower class.”
Just 2 percent of U.S. adults characterize themselves as “upper class.”
Survey taken April 1-22, 2024
Survey breakdown by demographic category:
Survey taken April 1-22, 2024
Living Situations
Almost one in 10 young adults ages 18-34 and nearly 3 in 10 adults 65 or older lived alone in 2022, according to a new U.S. Census Bureau report.
As of 2022
The Census Bureau also estimates that married-couple households made up 47 percent
of all households in 2022, down from 71 percent in 1970. Estimates from its America’s Families and Living Arrangements: 2022 report also show that about 80 million U.S. households in 2019 were family households. Of those:
- 58 million were married-couple households
- About 6 million were a male householder with no spouse present, and
- 15 million were a female householder with no spouse present.
Good Times, Bad Times
More Americans (68 percent) expect home prices to rise in their local area then they did a year ago (56 percent), and only 21 percent said it is a good time to buy a house, according to a Gallup survey taken earlier this month.
Survey taken April 1-22, 2024
Regional sentiment:
Survey taken April 1-22, 2024
Rentals
A new RentCafe analysis shows that apartments for rent in North Las Vegas attracted the 6th highest number of views among 150 cities the group surveyed in April.
- Online traffic at RentCafe.com for North Las Vegas apartments increased in April over April 2023 by 230 percent.
- There are 28 percent fewer apartments available in NLV on the RentCafe website than last April.
Liquor Taxes
Distilled spirits led American alcohol sales (42 percent of market share) for the second straight year in 2023, slightly outpacing beer sales (41.9 percent) again. Spirits-based hard seltzers and ready-to-drink cocktails have helped drive growth, according to the Tax Foundation.
They also are changing the makeup of a categorical tax system, such that some are calling for a reform of tax policy. As things stand now:
- Washington state levies the greatest excise tax rate on distilled spirits, at $36.55 per gallon, followed by
- Oregon ($22.85)
- Virginia ($22.04)
- Alabama ($21.67), and
- North Carolina (16.62).
Distilled spirits are taxed the least in Wyoming and New Hampshire.
As of January 2024
It may be alcohol-free beer that ultimately disrupts the market, though: Heineken, Corona, and Guinness are catering to a cohort of health-conscious consumers — and that market is worth about $13 billion at present:
As of Q1 2024
Degradation
The 2024 theme for World Environment Day is land restoration, desertification, and drought resilience. The UN has identified land degradation as one of the most pressing environmental issues: It affects roughly 40 percent of the world’s population.
Nevada’s own DRI, a global leader in applied environmental research, also is focused on the issue, with projects centered on drought resistance, cloud-seeding, groundwater monitoring and more, along with a new initiative focused on community resilience that kicks off with a big wildfire summit at Encore Las Vegas this August.
(Disclosure: Hightower Las Vegas partner and wealth management advisor Mike PeQueen, co-publisher of this newsletter, sits on the board of DRI’s Foundation.)
Hunger
At least 735 million people were affected by hunger in 2022, according to the most recent report from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
Nowhere does the problem have a larger scale than on the African continent. According to FAO, about 61 percent of the population there was experiencing moderate (including not enough money for healthy food, self-sufficiency problems, having to skip meals) or severe (including no food stocks, entire days without food) food insecurity, an increase of 9.4 percentage points from 2017. Statista graph:
As of 2022
Wealth
56 percent of Africa’s millionaires and more than 90 percent of its billionaires lived in five countries in 2023 — South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Kenya and Morocco, according to The Africa Wealth Report 2024. Statista graph:
As of 2023
Smoking
The World Health Organization estimates that tobacco use is responsible for the deaths of more than 7 million people each year.
The number of countries that require health warnings on cigarette packages has increased substantially since such labels were first suggested:
As of 2023
Nonetheless:
As of 2023
The Market Giveth
…and the market taketh away:
As of 3/11/24
Retirement
Retirees in the Washington, D.C., area have the highest retirement income in the nation, according to a new analysis by SmartAsset.
- Residents of Arlington, Virginia, had the highest retirement income, with an average of $90,140.
- Cambridge, Massachusetts ($79,563), and The Woodlands, Texas ($79,539), were second and third.
As of 2023
On the Horizon
Mike PeQueen: Friday’s employment report will be the number to focus on. Bad news is still good news: A weaker job market will be welcomed by investors because it could mean lower interest rates sooner rather than later.
This week’s MarketWatch calendar:
