Fact Pack! Crosscurrents and Headwinds
By Hightower Las Vegas and RCG Economics on September 16, 2025
We kick off this week’s edition of Fact Pack with two reminders that set the stage for the facts, stats, and graphs to follow:
- The U.S. labor market in August saw the addition of just 22,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, coming close to a stall in hiring, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Wage pressures and core inflation remained relatively high in August, with the 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding food and energy holding at 3.1 percent.
The August figure was made weaker by downward revisions to the prior two months totaling 21,000, and the sector breakdown reveals a bifurcated labor market. The modest headline gain was entirely dependent on a few resilient, non-cyclical sectors:
- Healthcare and social assistance continued to add jobs (+31,000 and +16,000)
but declines were seen in
- Federal government employment (-15,000)
- Wholesale trade (-12,000)
- Manufacturing (-12,000).
As of August 2025
As of August 2025
The “stagflationary” dynamic is complicating the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision-making path by calling for some level of trade-off between supporting a faltering labor market and reducing price pressures.
Regional and Nevada Takeaways
The economic situation is mirrored in the U.S. Mountain West, where the Fed’s regional surveys report economic activity as “flat” to “slightly down” — including a shift in consumer behavior toward lower-cost goods and services in response to sustained economic pressure.
On the global stage, the economic landscape is becoming increasingly fragmented.
China’s weak August data for industrial production, consumer spending, and the real estate sector are significant and are serving as regional dampers on Asia-Pacific and global growth.
Some U.S. allies are intensifying focus on coordinated economic pressure against Russia, whose wartime economy is showing signs of strain including a recent interest rate cut aimed at staving off a recession. Others are shifting to a focus on addressing domestic challenges.
Mike PeQueen:
Recent global economic data reveals uneven but undeniable economic cooling. Persistent inflation, a continuing structural slowdown in China, and divergent central bank policies across the globe are creating an environment of heightened uncertainty that is influencing business decision-making and consumer behavior.
Recovering international markets are providing a partial offset, but the overall landscape and cooling U.S. consumer sentiment present a clear and present headwind, with implications for the U.S. Mountain West region.
As an example of regional economic cooling, employment index from the Kansas City Fed’s most recent (July) Manufacturing Survey shows a drop in respondents’ assessment of employment levels compared with one year ago.
Employment Indexes from the Kansas City Fed’s Manufacturing Survey
Source: Manufacturing employment for the Tenth Federal Reserve District — Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, and parts of Missouri and New Mexico — is calculated using state-level data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. As of July 2025
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco’s Twelfth District, which encompasses Nevada along with eight other western states including California, Arizona, and Utah, has been experiencing a tangible cooling. The latest data (July) shows businesses in the district reported that employment levels were down slightly, a result of both active layoffs and decisions not to fill vacated positions through attrition.
Wage growth, while still present, was described as “modest.” The report explicitly noted that conditions in Nevada the retail trade and consumer and business services sectors had “weakened slightly”.
John Restrepo:
Nevada continues to experience structural misalignment in the state’s labor market because the preferences and skills of many job seekers do not match the needs of high-growth industries like healthcare.
The state’s mining sector, a potential engine for the kind of economic diversification needed, shows signs of progress with several new projects advancing, but other state sectors are stagnating — and a stronger U.S. dollar makes Las Vegas an increasingly expensive destination for international visitors as well as domestic tourists. This situation creates downward pressure on its tourism-centric economy, which depends heavily on discretionary spending and consumer confidence.
If you missed it last month, the annual Nevada Job Seeker Survey from UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research offered insight on the frictions Nevadans are facing when they are looking for a job, including reasons for separation from prior employment, expectations for future jobs, and the biggest challenges to re-employment.
One of the key graphs from CBER compares business confidence for three key metrics from quarter to quarter:
Data as of Q2 2024
A final. Note in case you missed it: The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) recently approved a $20 million extension of its sponsorship of the Formula One Las Vegas Grand Prix through 2027, betting that such mega-events, despite their high public cost, will continue to drive visitation and economic impact.6
For more facts and graphs for the Mountain West Region, check out The Tenth District Beige Book from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and the Twelfth District Beige Book from the San Francisco Fed.
Un-synchronized Swimming
The uncoordinated nature of recent central bank policy actions across the globe noted in the above section marks a not-small change in the global economic state-of-play. Coordinated rate hikes adopted by many G7 nations to combat shared global inflation shock have in some cases given way to national policies focused on domestic interests.
This desynchronization is causing volatility in foreign exchange markets, particularly in pairings like the U.S. dollar versus the Japanese yen. In stark contrast to its G7 peers, the Bank of Japan is shifting away from its decades-long ultra-loose monetary policy. After ending a massive economic stimulus program and raising short-term interest rate to 0.5 percent in January, Japan recently indicated readiness to implement further rate hikes — in stark contrast to the stance of most other developed economies.
| Country/Region | Central Bank | Current Policy Rate | Latest Headline CPI (YoY) | Next Policy Meeting |
| United States | Federal Reserve | 4.25%−4.50% | 2.9% (Aug 2025) | September 17, 2025 |
| Eurozone | European Central Bank (ECB) | 2.00% (Deposit Rate) | 2.0% (Jun 2025) | September 25, 2025 |
| United Kingdom | Bank of England (BoE) | 4.00% | 3.6% (Jun 2025) | September 18, 2025 |
| Japan | Bank of Japan (BoJ) | 0.50% | 2.7% (FY2025 Forecast) | September 19, 2025 |
Sources: European Central Bank and Trading Economics and U.S. Dept. of Treasury as of 2025
Economic Shock Chaser
Source: United Nations and IMF As of 2024
Energy Use Projections
With rising energy use in headlines across the planet, we didn’t want to end this edition of Fact Pack without these two excellent visualizations, starting with a graphic from Visual Capitalist in partnership with Tema and Foreside Fund Services:
As of 2025
Current electricity demand per capita for major economies:
As of 2024
On the Horizon
MarketWatch calendar:
