Fact Pack! Election Edition
By Hightower Las Vegas and RCG Economics on September 10, 2024
It has been seventy-four days since former President Trump and President Biden took the stage for a debate that ultimately led to Biden exiting the race. Election Day is still 57 days away, but early voting begins in the key swing state of Pennsylvania next Monday.
About 240 million Americans are eligible to vote in this year’s election, but the electoral college is what matters — and that means voters in swing states have more influence over outcomes. Map of the states that matter most:
As of 9/9/24
Early voting in Nevada begins on Saturday, October 19 and runs through Friday, November 1. Schedule for the first 15 states with early voting:
Source: U.S. News &. World Report As of 9/9/24
Lay of the Electoral Land
A glance at the latest national polls shows the race may be tight:
Source: Real Clear Politics
We say “may be tight” because polls can be wrong for a variety of reasons. Many pollsters underestimated Trump’s support in 2016 and 2020 — and underestimated Democratic support for Obama in 2012.
It is notable that, on average, Trump support has been and still is remarkably stable: He won 46% of the vote in 2016, and 47% in 2020.
Harris v. Biden
Pew Research has a nice graph showing voter confidence in the two in a variety of areas:
As of 9/2/24
On Taxes
Trump has said he will ask Congress to reduce corporate taxes for companies that make their products in the U.S. to 15% from 21%.
Harris has called for an increase of the corporate tax rate to 28% and a 28% capital gains tax rate on Americans earning $1 million or more. She also proposed a 10-fold increase in the small business tax deduction for startup costs.
America’s tax system is somewhat progressive, though not as much or little as is often claimed in debates:
As of April 2024
This ITEP table shows taxation as a percentage of gross and net income for each income group:
Jobs
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that U.S. employers added 142,000 non-farm jobs in August, below the Dow Jones consensus forecast of 161,000 but above the 89,000 jobs added in July.
A large share of the job gains came in the construction and health care sectors—which combined to add 65,000 jobs in August, accounting for about 45.8 percent of the month’s total growth.
The “headline” national unemployment rate ticked down from 4.3 percent to 4.2 percent, while average hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent month-over-month and 3.8 percent year-over-year.
Voter Motivations
The economy and health care top the list as top issues for voters:
As of 9/2/24
Voter Trends by Party
The last time a Democratic presidential candidate came close to winning a majority of rural voters came in the 1990s when Bill Clinton was the nominee. He earned 49% of rural votes in both 1992 and 1996. Since then there has been a significant drop off: Barack Obama won 43% of rural voters in 2008, and in 2020 Biden captured about 35% of rural votes — Trump took 65% of the rural vote.
All in all, Republicans won 71% of rural white voters in 2020, a 9-point increase over 2016. Though only 1 in 5 Americans live in rural towns, Trump’s strong majority puts nearly two dozen states out of reach for Democrats in 2024.
Pew Research Center created an enlightening set of graphs on urban, suburban, and rural voters from
As of 2023
Pew also created some nice comparative graphs showing various trends over the last five elections:
As of 2023
As of 2023
As of 2023
As of 2023
This piece at The Conversation digs into some nice details on the rural vote — including an observation by contemporary political history professor Jeff Bloodworth that Democrats often don’t even try to campaign in the rurals.
White House Readying U.S. Sovereign Fund Proposal
Recent headlines included news that White House officials are drafting a plan to start a U.S. sovereign wealth fund that would invest in national security interests including technology and energy firms. In a case of rare agreement with the Biden Administration — during an election year and otherwise — former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump is not objecting to the creation of the fund.
Many countries have long used sovereign wealth funds — state-owned investment vehicles that bring returns from other nations back home — to finance expenses and projects. For example:
- Norway’s $1.7 trillion Government Pension Fund, set up in 1990 to invest oil revenue surpluses, held 1.5% of all the world’s listed companies — as of August 2024.
- Saudi Arabia’s $925 billion Public Investment Fund has a 5% stake in Uber (but has also kept nearly two-thirds of its financing activities in country in order to spur local projects and infrastructure).
Details from the White House are yet to be announced.
The Money Game
Harris raised $361 million in August, significantly higher than the $130 million the Trump campaign announced for the same time period — down from $139 million in July (when the RNC and a failed assassination attempt motivated Republican donors) and also down from $210 million for the same month four years ago.
On the Horizon
Mike PeQueen: Now that the Fed has indicated it intends to lower interest rates, the market cares much more about the employment picture than the inflation number — so last week’s non-farm payroll report showing 142,000 jobs created in August was a bit disappointing to investors and traders. This week’s CPI now takes a back seat to presidential politics.
This week’s MarketWatch calendar:
