Fact Pack! Misery Index
By Hightower Las Vegas and RCG Economics on May 15, 2023
Economist Arthur Okun’s misery index, popularized by President Ronald Reagan, added inflation and the unemployment rate together as a measure of “misery”.
Currently year-over-year inflation is at 4.9 percent, and the unemployment rate is at 3.4 percent for a “misery index” value of 8.3.
As of April 2023
This is down from 8.5 in March, and below the median of 9.6 over the last 50 years.
Small business confidence is down as well:
As of April 2023
Supercore
April saw a “supercore” inflation slowdown in the U.S.:
As of April 2023
Mike PeQueen on how to think of supercore:
Supercore inflation refers to prices that typically are less volatile than, say, food and energy. Think haircuts, electrical work, and landscape services. Those prices often can better indicate the direction of prices in the U.S. economy.
Retirement Confidence
Americans’ optimism that they will have enough money to live comfortably throughout retirement has substantially declined, per an Employee Benefit Research Institute analysis. (The last time a decline in confidence of this magnitude was observed was in 2008 during the global financial crisis.)
Sixty-four percent of workers feel at least somewhat confident about retirement, with only 18 percent feeling very confident:
As of December 2022
Among Americans who do not feel confident, 4 in 10 workers and a quarter of retirees state it is due to having little to no savings.
Inflation also has a large impact on Americans’ certainty, with 29 percent of workers and 42 percent of retirees stating this is the reason for their lack of confidence.
Working Moms
As Mother’s Day approaches, Statista decided to take a look at women’s participation in the labor force. You might assume the ratio has increased significantly in recent decades, but that is not the case – at least not at the global level.
The labor force participation rate for women aged 25-54 rose from 67 percent in 1990 to 77 percent in 2021 in high-income countries, but per estimates from the International Labour Organization (ILO), 61.4 percent of women in prime working age were either employed or actively seeking employment globally in 2022, a small decline from 62.8 percent in 1990.
Child-rearing is generally considered the major factor lowering women’s labor force participation: As the chart below shows, the labor force participation gap widens to 42.6 percentage points for couple households with at least one child under age six.
As of December 2022
Class
In a 2022 survey conducted by Gallup, about half of Americans self-identified as middle class, 38 percent as middle class, and 14 percent as upper middle class. Only 2 percent identified as upper class.
To find out where it’s easiest to go from middle class to upper class, GOBankingRates drew data from the 2021 Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey and the Missouri Economic Research and Information Center’s composite cost of living index for each state from the 2022 averages. Here are the Mountain West states that made the cut for the top 10:
Idaho (ranked 1st) — 2021 median household income: $63,377. The five-year change in:
- Median household income: 28.88%
- Households earning $150,000-$199,999: 78.79%
- Households earning $200,000 or more: 96.55%
Utah (ranked 2nd)— 2021 median household income: $79,133. Five-year change:
- Median household income: 26.58%
- Households earning $150,000-$199,999: 66.04%
- Households earning $200,000 or more: 84.78%
Washington (3rd) — 2021 median household income: $82,400. Five-year change:
- Median household income: 31.11%
- Households earning $150,000-$199,999: 50.77%
- Households earning $200,000 or more: 96.83%
Oregon (4th) — 2021 median household income: $70,084. Five-year change:
- Median household income: 31.56%
- Households earning $150,000-$199,999: 75.56%
- Households earning $200,000 or more: 95.35%
Colorado (5th) — 2021 median household income: $80,184. Five-year change:
- Median household income: 28.25%
- Households earning $150,000-$199,999: 50.77%
- Households earning $200,000 or more: 76.19%
Nevada (ranked 10th) — 2021 median household income: $65,686. Five-year change in:
- Median household income: 23.72%
- Households earning $150,000-$199,999: 71.43%
- Households earning $200,000 or more: 83.78%
Other states in the top 10 were Maine, New Hampshire, Indiana and Vermont.
Super Commuters
No, not computers.
The latest report from Apartment List examines a nationwide decline in “super commuting” (defined as a one-way drive to work of 90-minutes or more). Throughout the 2010s, a shortage of affordable housing options in big cities pushed more workers into the suburbs, and just before the pandemic, 4.6 million people were commuting more than 90 minutes to work. But the recent proliferation of remote and hybrid jobs has reversed the trend. Today there are 1.5 million fewer super commuters than in 2019.
As of December 2021
A few key highlights from the report:
- Today in the Las Vegas metro there are 14,692 super commuters, down from a peak of 21,532 just before the pandemic. The metro-wide super commuter rate stands at 1.4%, compared to 2% nationally.
- The drop in super commuters is tied closely to the rise of remote work. From 2019-2021 the number of super commuters in Las Vegas metro fell 32 percent, while the number of remote workers rose 166 percent.
Here’s the full report.
New Listings
In April, the number of homes newly listed for sale declined by 21.3 percent compared to the same time last year. This was a slightly higher rate of decline than March’s 20.1 percent decrease:
As of April 2023
Starts
As for housing starts, there are a near record 1.69 million units under construction:
(Red is single family units.)
There are approximately 716,000 single family units and 958,000 multi-family units under construction — the highest level since 1973.
Rents
Rent Café is out with a ranking of Nevada cities where $1,500 secures the most and least apartment space, per its latest study:
As of April 2023
For a monthly budget of $1,500, three out of four municipalities in the Las Vegas metro area offer one- to two-bedroom apartments of more than 900 square feet. The smaller ones, Spring Valley and Paradise, are the most generous, but not by much. They offer 10 sq. ft. to 30 square feet more than North Las Vegas.
Here are some big cities where you can get the most/least space for $1,500 in the other regions:
| South | Northeast | Midwest |
| Tulsa, OK Apartment Size for $1,500: 1,368 sq. ft. Apartment Rent: $901 Average Apartment Size: 822 sq. ft. | Buffalo, NY Apartment Size for $1,500: 942 sq. ft. Apartment Rent: $1,257 Average Apartment Size: 789 sq. ft. | Wichita, KS Apartment Size for $1,500: 1,463 Sq. Ft. Apartment Rent: $817 Average Apartment Size: 797 Sq. Ft. |
| Miami, FL Apartment Size for $1,500: 554 sq. Ft. Apartment Rent: $2,404 Average Apartment Size: 888 sq. ft. | Manhattan, NY Apartment Size for $1,500: 243 sq. ft. Apartment Rent: $4,605 Average Apartment Size: 745 sq. ft. | Chicago, IL Apartment Size for $1,500: 502 Sq. Ft. Apartment Rent: $2,239 Average Apartment Size: 749 Sq. Ft. |
As of April 2023
College
On the Horizon
Mike PeQueen: After the big inflation and employment reports of the past two weeks, the economic calendar is lighter next week. Jobless claims on Thursday will be the number to watch.
Next week’s MarketWatch calendar:
