Fact Pack! More Jobs
By Hightower Las Vegas and RCG Economics on June 10, 2025
Nonfarm payrolls rose 139,000 in May, more than the Dow Jones estimate (125,000) and not much less than the final number (147,000) in April.
Nearly half the job growth came from health care, which added 62,000 positions. Leisure and hospitality contributed 48,000.
The national “headline” unemployment rate held at 4.2 percent in May; the rate in May of 2024 was 4.0 percent.
Average hourly worker pay rose 0.4 percent from April, and 3.9 percent from a year ago.
CBO Estimates on Tariff Policies
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that recent tariff policies would reduce deficits by $2.5 to $3 trillion through 2035, leading some to conclude that the tariffs could pay for the $3 trillion of borrowing under the House-passed reconciliation bill – aka the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). However, when measured on a comparable basis and incorporating the recent court ruling, the current tariffs would cover as little as one-sixth of OBBBA’s costs.
Assuming the recent trade court decision ruling many of Trump’s tariffs illegal is upheld, the CBO estimates the remaining tariffs would raise $80 billion in 2027, while OBBBA would increase primary deficits by $540 billion.
Over a decade, those tariffs would reduce debt by $850 billion, while OBBBA would increase debt by $3 trillion as written and $5 trillion if extended. If the trade court’s decision is overturned, the tariffs could cover about half of OBBBA’s near-term or permanent costs. These estimates assume that the tariffs are not reversed or adjusted (and no exemptions are added) by the current Administration or future ones.
(Note: Congress must enact policy to count it as an offset – so the SBO cannot count administrative policy changes – and OBBBA does not include any major increase in or codification of tariffs.)
As of 6/9/25
Through 2034, the tariffs currently in effect would reduce debt by about $2.7 trillion based on CBO’s conventional (non-dynamic) analysis. But most of those tariffs were ruled illegal by the U.S. Court of International Trade, who ruled the President exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Although the tariffs remain in effect pending an appeal, we estimate the remaining tariffs would reduce debt by closer to $850 billion through 2034.
Regardless, the tariff revenue would fall well short of the new borrowing under the House-passed reconciliation bill over the next few years. In 2027, for example, OBBBA will increase the primary deficit (which excludes interest) by about $540 billion per year – while the tariffs will raise about $80 billion assuming the trade court decision is upheld, and $270 billon if it is reversed on appeal.
Over the full decade, the tariffs appear to cover a larger share of OBBBA’s costs – but this assumes lawmakers allow $2 trillion of arbitrary expirations for allegedly temporary provisions in the reconciliation bill.
If all tariffs remain in place through 2034 without any removals, adjustments, exemptions, or trade deals, the tariffs currently in place would reduce the debt (including interest) by $2.7 trillion, while the tariffs currently deemed legal would reduce debt by $850 billion.
That $850 billion would cover more than one-quarter of the $3 trillion cost of the House-passed bill as written, but only one-sixth of the cost of the bill if made permanent. Assuming the trade court ruling is reversed, the tariffs would cover just over half of the cost of OBBBA, if made permanent.
As of 6/9/25
The actual gap may worsen when taking into account economic feedback effects, as economists have found tariffs would reduce economic output despite the positive effects of the deficit reduction. For example, CBO estimates that the tariffs currently in place could increase deficits by nearly $300 billion through 2035 due to dynamic effects (JCT estimates the dynamic effects of the tax title of OBBBA would reduce deficits by $100 billion). This estimate may not incorporate the bond market reaction to tariff announcements, which likely boosted interest costs.
All in all, while the tariffs could generate significant revenue, there is great uncertainty as to what tariffs will remain over the long term – and the recent ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade brings further into question their long-term viability. Yet even if all current tariffs remain in place, they would not be enough to cover the cost of the reconciliation bill.
State Manufacturing Winners
As tariff talks trudge on and market watchers wait to see what ultimately what will be what, we noted the following Visual Capitalist graphic with interest:
As of March 2025
Though Nevada’s manufacturing job sector is relatively small (68K), it exceeds several smaller states and territories including:
- Maine (52K)
- South Dakota (44K)
- North Dakota (28K)
- New Mexico (30K)
- Vermont and Delaware (27K)
- Alaska (12K)
- Wyoming (11K)
- D.C. (1.2K)
Notably, Wisconsin, ranked in the top 10 for total manufacturing employment, stands out for outperforming for its size. Although it’s only the 20th most populous state, its food and dairy processing boosts its per capita output to number one in the nation with 7,763.8 manufacturing jobs for every 100,000 residents.
Las Vegas REALTORS® (LVR) Report
The most notable May numbers were for listings without offers. At the end of May, LVR reported 6,646 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer — up 71.8 percent from one year earlier. The 2,510 condos and townhomes listed without offers in May represent an 89.6 percent jump from one year earlier.
LVR reported a total of 2,646 existing local homes, condos and townhomes sold in May. Compared to May 2024, sales were down 13.1 percent for homes and down 19.0 percent for condos and townhomes.
The median price of existing single-family homes sold in Southern Nevada through its Multiple Listing Service (MLS) during May was $480,000. That’s the same as April, but down from the all-time high of $485,000 set during the first three months of 2025. The median price is still up 1.5 percent from May of 2024.
The median price of local condos and townhomes sold in May was $307,000. That’s up 4.1 percent from May 2024, and short of the record high of $315,000 set in October 2024.
Follow Up
In last week’s edition of Fact Pack, we noted Census Bureau population numbers for a few Nevada metros. Curiosity may have killed a cat or three, but its effect on Fact Pack co-publisher John Restrepo is generally to spur a little extra research…
For those who were wondering, unincorporated Clark County had an estimated population of 1,030,000 in 2024, a number supported by at least two public documents — and a number of information sites including Wikipedia.
Commercial Construction Momentum
The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), a proprietary metric by Dodge Construction Network, grew 3.7 percent in May — commercial planning grew 0.8 percent, and institutional planning rose 10.5 percent.
As of May 2025
Fact Pack co-publisher and RCG Economics chief John Restrepo:
Before I get into a few granular facts, I want to remind our readers that the DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into the planning stages, so it generally leads real-world construction spending by about a year.
May’s commercial number was driven mostly by accelerated warehouse and hotel planning, and an uptick in education and recreational projects drove the month’s institutional gains. New institutional projects of note in the western U.S. include $500 million in planned renovations to the Honda Center in Anaheim, California, and the $238 million phase 2 of the Sterling Bay Pacific Center research and development building in San Diego.
The largest commercial projects in the U.S. included two new data centers: the $486 million Evolve Energy Partners Data Center in Warrenton, Missouri, and the $330 million Summit Crossing Data Center (Building 2) in Fredericksburg, Virginia.
Construction Job Openings
The construction industry had 248,000 job openings on the last day of April, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. JOLTS defines a job opening as any unfilled position for which an employer is actively recruiting. Industry job openings decreased by 3,000 last month and are down by 78,000 from the same time last year.
As of April 2025
As of April 2025
(Note: Visit abc.org/economics for the Construction Backlog Indicator and Construction Confidence Index, plus analysis of spending, employment, job openings and the Producer Price Index.)
Precipitation Forecasting
A meteorological research program is about to be underway in Singapore to enhance the city-state’s ability to forecast urban weather — especially rainfall and heat. Predictions for smaller-scale, faster-moving tropical weather tend to be more challenging than for mid-latitude regions (like North America and Europe) where conditions are driven by frontal systems that can be thousands of miles long.
As of April 2025
$45 Billion!
Insured losses connected to the Southern California wildfires in January are estimated to be as much as $45 billion, according to the California Earthquake Authority.
Outnumbered
We wrap this issue of Fact Pack with a nod to Daily Passport for its interesting rundown of places on the planet that animals outnumber humans. Our favorites:
- For 11 months out of the year, Christmas Island is a quiet, unassuming atoll in the Indian Ocean — until the march of the red crabs takes over. The annual migration of these crustaceans on this island belonging to Australia occurs for several weeks each year between October and December. During that time, tens of millions of crabs descend from the forest and into the ocean. The phenomenon happens at the beginning of the wet season around the new moon. To assist in the annual mass migration, the island’s infrastructure includes a clever crab overpass that is designed to allow the crabs to cross the island’s roads safely.
- Residents of the island of Kauai don’t have to worry about any egg shortages. The small Hawaiian island is home to roughly 450,000 chickens, a figure that vastly outnumbers the human population of 73,000 residents. The chickens can be found throughout the island, pecking their way through patios, parking lots, and even beach resorts.
With about six chickens for every local, there are a few theories as to how the chickens crossed the proverbial road to Kauai. One predominant theory is that the hurricanes in the 1980s destroyed the island’s chicken coops, which led to an abundance of free-roaming chickens. Another theory is that the chickens are descended from wild chickens that arrived with early Polynesian settlers. Regardless of their origin, the chickens are now part of the culture on the island, and it seems like they’re here to stay
Click here to read about the rest.
On the Horizon
Mike PeQueen: While not many people expect the Fed to lower rates this week, their meeting on Wednesday will still be closely watched. The statement they release could shed light on when the next rate cut may appear.
