Fact Pack! Mortgage Rates See 23-Year Highs
By Hightower Las Vegas and RCG Economics on September 22, 2023
Mortgage-backed securities (i.e., the bonds that drive mortgage rates) have pushed the average mortgage lender to offer rates in line with the highest 30-year fixed rate of the past 23 years.
Trend since April of 2013:
As of August 2013
Here’s a look at estimated principal and interest payments on a $400,000 mortgage at today’s rates, via Mortgage News Daily’s loan calculator:
All data considered, housing is simply not affordable for many Americans:
As of July 2023
Inventory, New Listings
For the week ending September 16, active housing inventory was down 4.4 percent year-over-year, and new listings were down 6.0 percent YoY, per Realtor.com. Other highlights from last week’s data:
- The median listing price grew by 0.2 percent over last year.
- Last week marked the 13th successive drop in the number of homes available for sale when compared to the previous year.
- Homes spent the same number of days on the market compared to this time last year.
Stat Pack!
RCG Economics is out with the latest Stat Pack metrics for Nevada. First up, a job types diversity graph:
As of December 2022
- Education and Health Services were 10.7 percent last year, up from 7.0 percent in 2002 (plus 3.7 percent).
- Jobs in Professional and Business Services were at 13.7 percent at the end of last year, up from 11.0 percent in 2002 (plus 2.7 percent.)
- Trade, Transportation and Utilities jobs were up to 19.8 percent as of December 2022, compared with 18.0 percent in December 2002.
- Manufacturing jobs have risen from 4.1 percent to 4.6 percent since 2002.
- Leisure and Hospitality accounted for 23.2 percent of jobs in Nevada in 2022, down from 28.2 percent in 2002.
Earnings in Southern Nevada:
As of July 2023
As we have pointed out many times, real earnings — how much money an individual makes after adjusting for inflation — differs from nominal income, which has no such adjustments. It borders on the shocking that real average weekly earnings in Southern Nevada sat at $687.63 in July 2023, up by only $53.68 per week from an average of $633.95 in January 2013.
The metric is a bit better in the Reno-Sparks metro, where real weekly earnings have risen from $631.76 in January 2013 to $771.60 in July 2023, an increase of $139.84:
As of July 2023
Convention attendance in Las Vegas has not yet returned to its former glory (6,694,500 in February 2020):
As of July 2023
Home closings in Southern Nevada:
As of July 2023
Industrial and office vacancy rates in Reno-Sparks (represented by the brown and yellow lines in the graph below) and Las Vegas (red and pink):
As of July 2023
Employee Benefits
From the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
As of March 2023
Tourism
The tourism industry is still recovering from the pandemic after having experienced its deepest shock in history, according to a newly published UN World Tourism Organization report. As the following Statista chart shows, France, Spain and the United States have managed to retain their places as the top three travel destinations worldwide, while China (replaced by Turkey in the 4-spot in 2022) and Thailand have disappeared from the list. Italy rounds out the top 5:
Airport Satisfaction
Following are some key findings of JD Power’s 2023 consumer satisfaction survey regarding America’s air hubs (aka the J.D. Power 2023 North America Airport Satisfaction Study, SM):
- Overall customer satisfaction with airports increased 3 points to 780 this year, despite record passenger volume, crowded terminals and frequent delays and cancellations.
- LaGuardia’s construction project resulted in a massive jump in passenger satisfaction. The hub climbed from worst in passenger satisfaction in 2019 to reach the large airport segment average this year.
- Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport ranked highest in passenger satisfaction among “mega” airports with a score of 800. Minneapolis-Saint Paul International Airport (796) ranked second and Harry Reid International Airport (787) ranked third.
- Tampa International Airport ranked highest among large airports for a second consecutive year, with a score of 832. John Wayne Airport, Orange County (829) ranked second and Salt Lake City International Airport (825) ranked third.
(Mega airports are defined as those with 33 million or more passengers per year; large airports with 10 to 32.9 million passengers per year; and medium airports with 4.5 to 9.9 million passengers per year.)
Millionaire Migration
From Visual Capitalist, a graph of where high net worth individuals are moving:
Forecast as of September 2023 based on migration data through 2022
Dial 911 for Emergencies
We were amused to read that a Japanese tourist called the police after receiving a $1,000 restaurant bill for a chili-crab dish served to her group in Singapore. An image of the receipt showed the crab cost about $680, meaning it weighed about 7.7 pounds.
This’ll Be the Way That We Die
It’s the official position of the Fact Pack editorial team that if we can’t joke about death by way of robot overlords, we’ve lost our cheek. Enjoy.
On the Horizon
Mike PeQueen: This week’s economic releases pales in comparison to last week’s Fed announcement on interest rates — but next Tuesday’s Case-Shiller home price index will be noteworthy. Have home prices bottomed across the country and, if not, will higher mortgage interest rates continue to take a toll?
Next week’s MarketWatch calendar:
