Fact Pack! New Home Sales Slowdown in Las Vegas

By Hightower Las Vegas and RCG Economics on September 29, 2026

We lead this week’s Fact Pack with news that rocked Southern Nevada last week: New home sales in August in the Las Vegas Valley plunged 31 percent year-over-year, resulting in builders cutting new construction permits by the same metric (31 percent), according to data tracked by Home Builders Research.

In January, homebuilders in Southern Nevada sold 974 homes; in August, they sold 653, according to data from Home Builders’ Research. Standing inventory of finished homes stood at 688 for the first week in September.

Lennar Homes, a major Southern Nevada homebuilder and the second largest builder in the U.S., saw net earnings for June, July, and August fall from just under $1.2 billion last year to $591 million this year — close to a 50 percent drop.

Lennar’s response? Slashing prices on new homes by an average of 22 percent, according to multiple news reports.

Got Work-Life Balance?

According to rankings based on 10 metrics in a 2025 survey, Nevada does — though not as much as Maine, which ranked first:

As of 2025 data

Maine’s top ranking was supported by a mix of factors rather than one standout measure. The state requires employers to provide for 10 paid days off per year — five statutory annual leave days and five sick days — and has a $14.15 minimum wage. Its 39.2-hour average workweek is also shorter than in many other well-ranked states.

In New York (ranked 7^th) and California (9^th), paid maternity leave and five sick days annually are required by state law; minimum wages stand at $15.50 and $16, respectively; and both states offer relatively strong worker protections, which helped offset longer average working hours in the methodology.

Mountain West states fared well in the rankings, with Nevada (6^th), Oregon (8^th), California (9^th), Colorado (10^th), and New Mexico (14^th) making the top 15.

Source: Visual Capitalist

Caesars-Fertitta Merger + MGM Takeover Fail

In case you were off-planet and missed it last week:

Caesars Entertainment shareholders officially approved a multi-billion-dollar merger with Fertitta Entertainment on September 23. The numbers:
- $17.6 Billion — Enterprise transaction value of the entire acquisition deal
- $5.7 Billion — Cash payout by Fertitta Entertainment to acquire the equity
- $11.9 Billion — Caesars’ outstanding debt to be assumed by Tilman Fertitta’s gaming empire
- $31.00 Per Share — Payout Caesars shareholders will receive for each share of common stock they own.
- 133 million in favor to 4 million against — Share (vote) count breakdown from the SEC on the vote held in Reno.

Media mogul Barry Diller officially ended his bid to take over MGM Resorts International, also on Sept. 23. His company maintains its substantial 27 percent stake in the gaming operator.

Consumer Sentiment

Data released Friday showed U.S. consumer sentiment in September reached its lowest level in four months as inflation expectations rose, according to a University of Michigan survey.

The main sentiment index fell 7 percent to 48.1, but nonetheless surpassed expectations for a reading of 47.5, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Source: University of Michigan

Major Metrics

At-a-glance indicators from Ycharts:

Source: Ycharts Weekly Market Plus email on 9/28/26

As of date shown under each category

Census Bureau Growth by Industry

In 1810, during the early stages of the Industrial Revolution and two decades after the first U.S. decennial population count, U.S. Marshals were tasked with collecting Manufacturing data for 25 categories of products and more than 200 types of goods as part of their census-taking duties.

More than 200 years later, multiple Census Bureau surveys collect data on manufacturing companies and their products. Below, a graphic showing two centuries of change in one industry: alcoholic beverages manufacturing.

Data as of 2022

Note that there were more U.S. distilleries in 1810 (14,191) than in 2022 (1,230) but they, of course, generated far less in sales: $15.6 million compared to $18.8 billion. (Fact Pack co-publisher John Restrepo notes: That second sales number is not adjusted for inflation.)

According to the Census Bureau’s 2023 County Business Patterns survey, the manufacturing sector is the fifth-largest employer in the U.S. and ranks ninth among categories for average annual pay:

As of 2023 Census Bureau data

Best Places to Work by State

As rated by employees of companies with 500 workers or more in a Forbes survey of more than 245,000 Americans:

As of 2025 survey data

Takeaways:

Microsoft was the top-rated employer in nine states, the most of any organization.
Google led in seven states.
Tech companies ranked first in 19 states, more than any other sector.
Two airlines were top rated:
- Delta in Utah and Michigan
- United Airlines in Hawaii
Three government agencies were top rated in their states:
- NASA in Alabama
- The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs in South Dakota
- The State of Wyoming in the state of Wyoming

Hiring

The U.S. labor market is projected to add nearly 5.9 million jobs between 2025 and 2035.

Home health and personal care aides are projected to add 847,000 jobs by 2035, more than three times as many as any other occupation.
Eleven of the 30 occupations expected to add the most jobs have median annual wages below the U.S. median of $50,980.
Nurse practitioners are projected to grow 41% by 2035, the fastest rate among the occupations shown.

U.S.-China Tariff Cuts

As of Sunday, China and the U.S. had agreed to cut tariffs imposed on $60 billion worth of “non-sensitive” goods imported from each other. The reciprocal tariff reductions and an extension of a trade truce were among the outcomes of the second summit this year between President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump.

China ⁠agreed to reduce duties on a variety of U.S. agricultural goods including corn, wheat, sorghum, meat, dairy, vegetable oils and meals (but not on soybeans).
Beijing will also reduce tariffs on U.S. fish and seafood, logs and wood products, cosmetics, and medical devices.
The U.S. will relax levies on small appliances including coffee makers and toasters, along with tableware, blankets and bed linens.
Toys, fireworks, artificial flowers, Christmas tree lamps and other holiday decorations, and children’s car seats are also among Chinese-made products that will see a reduction in tariffs.

In June, the U.S. exported $9.57 billion and imported $25.1 billion in goods from China, resulting in a negative trade balance of $15.6 billion, according to an OEC analysis.

Source: OEC As of 2024

In June 2026, the top exports of the U.S. to China were:

Aircraft parts (gliders, balloons, and powered aircraft) ($1.66 billion)
Integrated circuits ($1.2 billion)
Vaccines, blood, antisera, toxins and cultures ($574 million)

The main imports from China into the U.S. were:

Telephones ($1.92 billion)
Commodities “not elsewhere specified” ($1.08 billion)
Computers ($853 million)

Fact Pack co-publisher and Hightower wealth management advisor Mike PeQueen with a primer on “not elsewhere specified”:

The term is a catch-all statistical category used in international trade data for goods that do not fit into standard product classifications — such as unwrought or semi-manufactured gold and other precious metals — or goods where details are withheld for national security, diplomatic, proprietary, or commercial sensitivity reasons. Examples include:

microchips or precision drone components with potential military applications
aerospace and satellite materials and subsystems
consular equipment, vehicles, or specialized communications gear
unreleased tech hardware, automotive designs, or biological components shipped under non-disclosure terms to prevent corporate espionage
pre-market raw materials or active pharmaceutical ingredients where exposing exact compounds could reveal trade secrets.

Wait, What…?

The above list of undisclosed, imported-from-China products maysound alarming, but it is typically done to protect American companies.

Imagine, for example,an American tech firm or automaker designing a new product. They might contract with a Chinese firm to manufacture an advanced prototype component. If the U.S. company listed the exact technical specifications on a public customs form, competitors could see it and potentially steal the design. By masking import details under a generic category, the U.S. government helps protect American trade secrets.

As for the military-centric items, despite diplomatic tensions between the U.S. and China, modern supply chains are deeply intertwined. Economic rivalry does not translate into a total freeze on commerce; even the U.S. and Russia traded goods during the Cold War. Additionally, many electronics components are dual use. Think: a graphics chip that can make for a fun video game — or power a military simulation.

Japan: We Got This

Higher interest rates can make it harder for countries to cover the interest on borrowed funds, causing budget crunches and growing deficits. Analyst Richard Katz notes that despite its other economic challenges, Japan has a relatively low debt-to-GDP ratio.

Source: Richard Katz on Substack

Forecasts based on Sept. 2026 metrics and rates

Fire Sale

Prompted by the many-times mentioned “K-shaped economy” that is squeezing middle-to-low-income travelers, the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority last week coordinated and executed a citywide “Five-Day Sale” of up to 60 percent off hotel rooms at major Strip properties from September 22–26, 2026. (A similar effort occurred last year.)

According to remarks made to News 3 by Andrew Woods, director of UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research, the primary success metric wasn’t so much about short-term room bookings but rather about an attempt to convert first-time — or “Vegas-curious” — travelers who would otherwise choose rival destinations.

Reference metrics from PSS West Coast:

Source: psswestcoast.com As of 2025

Travel Value Alert: Train Seat Upgrades

Fact Pack readers planning their 2027 vacations may want to read a recent Bloomberg story noting that first-class and premium train upgrades cost a fraction of airline class upgrades. Unlike flight fares (and hotel rates), train fares have not seen major post-pandemic price surges.

In Japan, for example, standard rail fares rose only 2.7 percent between 2020 and 2026 — compared to 12.2 percent overall inflation and much bigger increases in average airfares. The Tokyo to Nagoya fare runs around $68. Upgrading to Green Class (1st Class) is just $30, and the new “Supreme Class” private single cabin costs about one-hundred dollars more ($205).

Image source: Japan Rail Pass Now

Closer to home, on the remarkably scenic Hudson River Valley route from NYC to Poughkeepsie — from where one can easily reach the historic Vanderbilt Mansion and/or lunch at the Culinary Institute of America, situated on 170-acres of riverbank grounds — round-trip Amtrak coach starts at $74 and business class runs around $178 for comfy seats, spacious legroom, and lounge access.
European Bargains & Scenic Rail Routes
- An upgrade to first class averages about $12 per hour in Europe compared to around $50 per hour for flights.
- Interrail Global Pass (33 countries) — Pay $680 for 22 days in coach or upgrade to 1st class for $203 or about $10 per day.
- Zurich to Vienna — A direct 1st class upgrade is around $19. Prefer the scenic route? Riding in the Transalpin panorama car through the Austrian Alps costs an extra $23 and includes dining service at-seat and use of the 1st-class lounge during transfers.
- 3-Hour Express Routes — Barcelona–Madrid and Rome–Milan 1st class upgrades average just $34.

Want more ideas? Scenic Train Routes of the World offers a scroll over map with pop-up departure/destination, route length, and journey time details, along with a top 53 scenic trainway list. (Warning: The map may prove to be addictive for travel enthusiasts.)

On the Horizon

MarketWatch calendar, including a slew of Wednesday reports for August metrics: