Fact Pack! Treasury Yield and AI Swings
By Hightower Las Vegas and RCG Economics on September 15, 2026
As investors side-eyed their calendars Monday morning in anticipation of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield reached a multiyear high of 5.014 percent — its highest level since October 2023 — before dipping to 4.97 percent by market close. Treasuries at-a-glance, as of Monday evening:
- 2-Year Treasury Note:
- Price: 99.08
- Yield: 4.63 percent
- 10-Year Treasury Note:
- Price: 97.44
- Yield: 4.97 percent
- 30-Year Treasury Bond:
- Price: 96.94
- Yield: 5.36%
AI Stock Slide
We feel nearly certain our readers have by now read about the mild to medium to major panic afoot in the AI space, but just in case, here are some Cliff’s Notes:
- Jacob Coxon, a prominent pretraining researcher who worked at both OpenAI and Anthropic, has publicly resigned and posted a viral “manifesto” warning that
- both companies are locked in a “reckless” race toward self-improving superintelligence while sidelining safety.
- researchers internal to both companies fear loss of control or “catastrophic” outcomes before the end of the decade.
- Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei publicly warned over the weekend that “building too fast is reckless” and called for an industry slowdown.
- OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated that OpenAI would not pursue an IPO in 2026 due to unresolved safety concerns.
- As of Monday morning, investors began pricing in a forced deceleration of the generative AI boom. Major AI backers and chip suppliers experienced immediate selloffs amid fears that pauses or slower model iteration cycles will impair the return on hundreds of billions in capital expenditures.
Sticky-Price CPI
The Atlanta Fed’s sticky-price consumer price index (CPI)—a weighted basket of items that change price relatively slowly—rose 3.1 percent (on an annualized basis) in August, following a 3.5 percent increase in July. On a year-over-year basis, the series was up 2.7 percent in August.
On a core basis (excluding food and energy), the sticky-price index rose 3.1 percent (annualized) in August, and its 12-month percent change was 2.7 percent.
The flexible cut of the CPI—a weighted basket of items that change price relatively frequently—increased 10.2 percent (annualized) in August and on a year-over-year basis, the series is up 4.9 percent.
Source: Atlanta Fed As of 9/11/26
Underlying Inflation
The Atlanta Fed also has updated its context-rich Underlying Inflation Dashboard based on August data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
Source: Atlanta Fed As of 9/11/26
Source: Atlanta Fed As of 9/11/26
Check out the Atlanta Fed’s Underlying Inflation methodology here.
Wage Growth
The Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker edged up to 4.1 percent in August from 3.8 percent the prior month. For those not changing jobs, the Tracker held at 3.6 percent in August, while the Tracker for those changing jobs increased to 5.0 percent from 4.4 percent in July.
Source: Atlanta Fed As of 9/10/26
The Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker is a measure of the nominal wage growth of individuals. It is constructed using microdata from the Current Population Survey (CPS) and is the median percent change in the hourly wage of individuals observed 12 months apart.
Click here for the interactive graph.
Nevada New Business Filings Hold Steady in August
Nevada logged 7,148 new entity filings alongside 31,536 business renewals in August, according to the Secretary of State, revealing resilient startup activity and steady corporate retention heading into the final stretch of the year.
That said, a report last week from the Nevada chapter of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) showed that sentiment cooled month-over-month in August, though it held above its historical long-term baseline.
Nevada businesses reported reduced expectations for general expansion, and softening wage growth and easing hiring pressures point to a slower, more cautious labor market.
Las Vegas Sellers Cut Asking Prices as Inventory Climbs
Nevada Real Estate Group counted all 8,294 active Las Vegas listings on September 8 and reported that 42.4 percent had cut the price by a median of $20,000. The median asking price was $469,900, and the analysis showed that 1,817 homes were both 60-plus days old and price-reduced.
The median number of days on the market was 24 days, underscoring growing buyer leverage against elevated mortgage rates. Snapshot of the market, also helpfully provided by Nevada Real Estate Group:
Source: Nevada Real Estate Group As of 9/8/26
Price cut matrix:
Source: Nevada Real Estate Group As of 9/8/26
Grand Canyon Water Breakdown Threatens Regional Tourism Revenue
The regional tourism engine that is Northern Arizona and Southern Nevada — together generating nearly $1 billion annually — took yet another hit over the weekend. Severe flooding ruptured the trans-canyon pipeline supplying the South Rim of the Grand Canyon, forcing multi-week lodging and facility closures, as reported by the AP and others.
Visitor counts are expected to fall in the Las Vegas-Grand Canyon corridor, affecting every aspect of the hospitality ecosystem and reducing work hours for hundreds of regional hospitality and service workers.
Saudi Shutdown
Seven million barrels of crude oil a day — approximately 4 percent of global oil supply — are no longer flowing west from a refinery in Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea port city of Yanbu, according to multiple international news reports on Friday. The “precautionary” shutdown of a major oil pipeline followed drone attacks from an unknown source in Iraq believed to be tied to Iran-back militias.
Higher Oil Prices = Higher Gold Prices
A couple of years ago, analyst Tom McClellan noted a correlation between the price of gold (the black line in the graph below) and the price of crude oil (red), albeit with a 20-month (or so) lag that he explains here.
Last week McClellan created a graph reflecting rising crude oil prices and what he says is likely to be “a much longer uptrend” in the price of gold.
Source: McClellan Publishing As of 9/10/26
Opportunity Zone Analysis
A Brookings analysis on the more than 7,000 Opportunity Zones (OZs) since Congress created them in 2017 to attract private investment into economically distressed communities includes several notable metrics.
- Building market share shifted into OZs during the Brookings study period (2019 – 2024). OZs accounted for 9.9 percent of tracts.
- After OZ designation, the share of U.S. new building construction in OZs increased 13.8 percent (from 5.8 percent 2017-2018 to 6.6 percent 2019–2024).
- 46 percent of designated OZs saw increases in building activity of at least 15 percent.
More metrics in this Brookings table comparing all tracts in the U.S. to OZs from (2014 to 2018):
Source: Brookings As of 2018
Box Office
Hollywood films follow culture so our last item in this week’s Fact Pack notes, with no surprise, that AI angst and apocalyptic warnings from tech insiders will soon be reflected at the box-office. Four movies about Silicon Valley will be released in the U.S. this fall, reports Semafor’s Liz Rappaport. She also checked the numbers on tech-centric vs. Wall Street movies over the years:
As of August 2026
On the Horizon
This week’s packed MarketWatch calendar:
