Friday Fact Pack! CPI
By Hightower Las Vegas and RCG Economics on June 10, 2022
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.0 percent in May on a
seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in April, per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 8.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.)
The biggest contributors to the May increase were shelter, gasoline, and food. After declining in April, the energy index rose 3.9 percent over the month with the gasoline index rising 4.1 percent. The food index rose 1.2 percent.
Over the last 12 months, the all-items less food and energy index rose 6.0 percent. The energy index rose 34.6 percent over that same period, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending September 2005. The food index increased 10.1 percent for the 12-months ending in May, the first increase of 10 percent or more since the period ending March 1981.
From Schwab’s chief investment strategist @LizAnnSonders, trends for top contributors to the consumer price index:
Trade
The Commerce Department said Tuesday that the U.S. trade gap—the difference between U.S. imports and exports—fell 19.1 percent in April thanks to a drop in domestic demand for foreign goods.
- April exports were $252.6 billion, $8.5 billion more than March exports.
- April imports were $339.7 billion, $12.1 billion less than March imports.
- Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $107.9 billion, or 41.1 percent, from the same period in 2021.
- Exports increased $151.3 billion or 18.8 percent.
- Imports increased $259.2 billion or 24.3 percent.
Fact Pack co-publisher and Hightower Las Vegas partner Mike PeQueen:
“A slowing global economy, inflation, pandemic problems and the conflict in Ukraine will likely continue to reduce import demand. Accordingly, the World Bank has lowered its global growth forecast for 2022 from 4.1 percent to 2.9 percent.”
Rapid Changes in Race
This week is Multiracial Heritage Week. The 2020 Census shows the U.S.’ “Two or More Races” population at 33.8 million — up from 9 million in 2010, a 276 percent increase.
Photo via Census Bureau
On this topic, the Census Bureau has a nifty new data and map page you can play with to get information by race for every state. Screen shot:
Nevada’s closeup data:
Top 10 whitest states:
Least white (note Nevada is in the mix):
More Homes Are Here
For the week ending June 4, active inventory continued to grow, rising 13 percent from one year ago, per Realtor.com. That stat, along with year-over-year sales growth data, signals that what we are seeing is more than just seasonal improvement.
However, the national May Housing Trends Report showed that the active listings count was still nearly 50 percent below its level at the beginning of the pandemic. Other key findings:
- The median listing price grew by 16.9 percent over last year. The growing number of homes for sale will put downward pressure on prices so don’t expect to see the same price growth we’ve been experiencing
- New listings were up 2 percent over a year ago, indicating that seller confidence remains high.
- Homes spent 5 fewer days on the market than this time last year. More homes for sale will (eventually) cool the ultra-fast pace of home sales.
Table:
Mortgage Applications
The number of applications always drops over Memorial Day weekend, and this year was no exception:
Apartment Vacancies
Per ApartmentList.com, the Las Vegas metro’s vacancy rate sits at 5 percent, up from 3.5 percent just one year ago.
During that same time, national rent prices have risen 19.2 percent:
Nevada vs. national vacancy index:
(Note: To calculate its vacancy index, Apartment List tracks pricing and availability changes in real time in/among the listings on its platform.)
Dodge
The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) jumped 7 percent in May to 176.2. The index is issued by Dodge Construction Network and is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
May’s increase in the Dodge Momentum Index pushed the level of planning above the most recent cyclical high (November 2021). Commercial planning was led higher by an increase in office and hotel projects. Institutional planning was boosted by an increase in education and healthcare projects.
On a year-over-year basis, the Momentum Index was 17 percent higher than in May 2021. The commercial component was 24 percent higher, and the institutional component was 8 percent higher than one year ago.
Health Care Debt
Health care has become the largest source of debt in collections in the U.S., and this new analysis from Innovation for Justice features a slew of data. Its debt policy rankings label Nevada as “poor” and put us at 31st out of 50 (click here to read more about Nevada’s rating):
Pay Disparity
In 2019, the median salary for women working full time in the U.S. was $43,394, compared with $53,544 for men, per the U.S. Census Bureau. Pew Research has a new analysis of pay scales by gender; here’s their infomap:
Pew’s write-up says studies show that salary transparency—coupled with laws prohibiting companies from asking an applicant about their current or previous pay—can narrow the gender pay gap.
So far, 17 states have adopted pay transparency laws. In March, Washington Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee signed legislation requiring employers with 15 or more workers to post salary ranges beginning in 2023. A similar Rhode Island law is scheduled to take effect next year.
Who is Banning Books?
Margaret Atwood and her publisher, Random House, are auctioning off a fireproof version of their best-selling book, The Handmaid’s Tale, in protest against the increasing censorship of books in the U.S.
First published in 1985, the dystopian novel depicts an America controlled by religious fanatics, where women have no rights and abortion is punishable by death, just for starters. The book frequently ranks as one of the most banned in the U.S.
Per data from PEN America, states in the South and Midwest of the country are exercising increased book censorship, with 713 separate titles facing bans in Texas schools and libraries between July 2021 and April 2022:
Who’s Backing Bitcoin?
Tesla made headlines when it invested $1.5 billion in Bitcoin in February 2021. The recent crypto market crash has left that outlay looking questionable, but the volatile currency could bounce back. If it does, this Statista graph shows which companies have the most cryptocurrency on their balance sheets:
On the Horizon
Mike PeQueen: While next week is packed with important financial reports, all eyes and ears will be on Wednesday’s announcement from the Federal Open Market Committee. They are widely expected to raise the Fed funds rate by half a percentage point. There are also high odds that they will repeat this action in July.
