Friday Fact Pack! Peaks and Troughs
By Hightower Las Vegas and RCG Economics on December 9, 2022
While speculators are busy consulting their tea leaves and crystal balls regarding a possible recession, Calculated Risk is tracking three indicators that generally reach peaks and troughs together — and can lend a clue on the topic:
As of 12/9/22
Note that the light blue shading indicates a recession.
Jobs
Mankato-North Mankato, Minnesota, had the lowest unemployment rate (1.3 percent) in October. The next lowest rates were in: Fargo, North Dakota-Minnesota and Rochester, Minnesota (1.4 percent each).
Yuma, Arizona, had the highest rate (17.9 percent).
A total of 197 metropolitan areas had October jobless rates below the U.S. rate of 3.4 percent, 174 areas had rates above it, and 18 areas had rates equal to that of the nation.
Las Vegas-Henderson-Henderson had a rate of 5.6 percent, and Reno-Sparks had a rate of 3.5 percent.
Northern Nevada Job Adds
The Economic Development Association of Western Nevada (EDAWN) this week announced 27 companies that relocated or expanded their workforce in Greater Reno-Sparks in 2022. The companies will add a combined 2,263 new jobs, at a record average wage of $32.67, along with 12 new headquarters.
For the fifth consecutive year, the tech industry is still leading the way, representing the largest segment of companies at 41 percent. Manufacturing made up 33 percent, and logistics, distribution and e-commerce represented 19 percent.
“This year proved to be yet another impressive year with new and local expanding companies adding more quality jobs to the region over the next few years, said Mike Kazmierski, President and CEO of EDAWN. “The Reno-Sparks unemployment rate continues to drop at 3.1%. Our strong economic activity is a direct result of the diversification of industries, which will help secure our economic vitality longterm.”
Business Trends
The Census Bureau’s latest Business Trends and Outlook Survey is chock-full of data. Sample graph showing how owners/managers rate their company’s current performance:
Nevada Housing Market
A new report by Construction Coverage based on Redfin data looks at which U.S. locations have seen the largest decline in home sales after a two-year frenzy in the market shows that in October 2022, home sales fell to 439,596—a year-over-year decline of nearly 30 percent—while the median time spent on the market is now 35 days, versus 15 in June and July of 2021.
The analysis found that Western states saw bigger drops in sale. Home sales in Nevada totaled 3,009 in October of this year, compared to 5,087 in 2021—a year-over-year decrease of 40.8 percent, the 2nd largest drop among states with available data in home sales in 2022.
Utah topped the list of states with a 43.2 percent decline. Others:
- California (-37.4 percent)
- Washington (-36.7 percent)
- Arizona (-37.0 percent)
- Idaho (-35.4 percent)
Déjà vu
As of 12/8/22
Slowing Growth
Housing data from Realtor.com in the week that followed the Thanksgiving holiday showed growth in the number of homes for sale. Key findings:
- The median listing price grew by 10.3% percent over last year, but we’ll likely see single-digit home price growth before the end of the year.
- New listings were down 8 percent from one year ago, marking the 22nd consecutive week of year-over-year declines.
- Homes spent nine extra days on the market compared to this time last year. However, homes still are selling faster than was typical before 2019, and lower-priced markets in the Northeast and Midwest are seeing homes sell even faster than in other areas.
Homeownership
Before the Great Recession, homeownership among households headed by adults ages 25-34 rose as loose (and ultimately risky) lending practices opened access to credit. Homeownership rates for 2003 to 2007 ranged from 46.4 percent to 47 percent, per the 2000-2019 American Community Survey (ACS).
Since the housing market crash and economic downturn, lending options have tightened and home prices have risen, driving down ownership rates: Homeownership among households headed by adults ages 25 to 34 dropped 10.0 percentage points to 36.8 percent between 2007 and 2015.
Higher levels of educational attainment among young adults (and the subsequent higher earnings) are associated with higher homeownership rates:
But in and among demographic groups, higher education is not a guarantee of higher rates of ownership:
Teacher Vacancy Rates
The pandemic did not help an already not-great situation, per the Economic Policy Institute:
Subject areas affected:
And college students are not studying education nearly as much:
Poverty Rates
Poverty rates for children (under age 18) in U.S. counties are wide-ranging, from less than 1.0 percent to 72.7 percent, per American Community Survey (ACS) 5-year estimates.
According to the new estimates, the national child poverty rate declined from 21.2 percent in the 2012-2016 period to 17.0 percent in the 2017-2021 period. But it was still 4.4 percentage points higher than the ACS national overall poverty rate of 12.6 percent during the same period.
As of 12/9/22
The poverty rate (9.6 percent) of people ages 65 and older during the 2017-2021 period was 3 percentage points lower than the overall rate.
In raw numbers, 117 (3.7 percent) of the nation’s counties had poverty rates of 40 percent or more. Increases and decreases:
Oil Supply
Via The Daily Shot newsletter on 12/9/22
Shipping Rates
From The Daily Shot newsletter as of 12/9/22
Tech Layoffs
Layoffs in Big Tech are happening so frequently that data tracking sites from Crunchbase to Inc42 are assembling the numbers. For the purposes of the following infographic, Visual Capitalist used data from trueup.io which includes a mix of U.S. and international tech companies that have let workers go in 2022.
Via Visual Capitalist as of 12/9/22
Click here for a Zoomed in view of the graphic.
On the Horizon
Mike PeQueen: The number with the potential to break hearts and wallets next week will come out of the Consumer Price Index report on Tuesday. As you will recall, last month’s number came in below expectations which sent the stock market up and drove speculation that the Fed would “pivot’ soon and reduce the size of future interest rate hikes or, potentially, end them entirely.
Next week’s MarketWatch calendar:
