Fact Pack! Mixed Consumer Confidence Bag
By Hightower Las Vegas and RCG Economics on May 12, 2026
We begin this week’s Fact Pack with a question: Are consumers losing confidence — or are price pressures for certain categories of goods and services causing a dip in spending in select areas while not affecting others? Facts and data:
- The NY Fed’s April Survey showed one-year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 3.6 percent. Gas price expectations improved, but the survey revealed that the increased cost of medical care (9.6 percent YOY) and rent (6.0 percent YOY) remain primary concerns for household pocketbooks.
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all items less food and energy (on a seasonally adjusted basis) rose 0.2 percent in March. Indexes that increased in March over February include airline fares, apparel, household furnishings and operations, education, and new vehicles.
- 12-month percentage change to CPI for all items (not seasonally adjusted):
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics As of March 2026
- The indexes for medical care, personal care, and used cars and trucks decreased in March from the prior month.
- The CPI energy index increased 12.5 percent for the 12 months ending March. 12-month percentage change to CPI for all items (not seasonally adjusted) and energy (the blue line):
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics As of March 2026
- Whirlpool stock fell 20 percent last week. The company noted a “recession-level industry decline” caused by shoppers pulling back on big-ticket buys.
- Executives at Disney and Uber noted that Americans are still spending on their resorts and rides.
GDP
We note for the Fact Pack record the modest (2.0 percent) but better than Q4 2025 GDP growth:
As of 4/30/26
Gas Prices + Midterms = ?
As gas prices remain elevated across the U.S., Bloomberg notes that several Midwestern states are seeing the steepest increases — putting a strain on voters Republicans need in the midterm elections to keep control of Congress.
Source: Bloomberg As of May 2
In Ohio, the price of gasoline has surged 72 percent — twice the percentage increase for California.
President Donald Trump said Monday he’s seeking to suspend the federal gas tax and told CBS News he would reintroduce the tax “when gas goes down.”
A Congressional Research Service study from 2022 concluded that it is questionable whether such measures result in savings to consumers because federal gas tax is collected at the terminal or refinery, not at the time of a retail purchase.
Currently, the federal gas tax is 18.4 cents per gallon for gas and 24.4 cents for diesel.
Balance of Power
Polymarket and other betting sites are seeing a high volume of wagers re: the balance of power in the midterms. Polymarket’s trend lines show opinions are presently leaning toward a Democratic sweep of both houses (45 percent) but there is swath of bettors who believe Republicans will hold of the Senate (34 percent):
As of 5/11/26 at 5 a.m. PST
Resilient 1Q26 Business Growth
Shot: Revised federal data shows business investment in the U.S. surged by more than 10 percent in Q1 2026, driven mostly by intellectual property and equipment acquisitions.
Chaser: Private payroll growth in early 2026 has been 2.5 times higher than the 2025 average.
NV Small Business Jobs Report
The NFIB Nevada Jobs Report released May 7 shows the Small Business Employment Index fell 1.2 points in April to 100.4, the second month of decline.
Source: NFIB As of 4/30/26
NFIB State Director Tray Abney noted in comments that hiring remains steady, but a “lack of qualified applicants” is an ongoing challenge.
Reno’s Record Q1
Visit Reno Tahoe reported last week that taxable room revenue for Q1 2026 was $106.8 million, the highest mark in the destination’s history. The 3.3 percent year-over-year (YOY) increase was primarily driven by a heavy convention and event calendar.
- The American Bus Association Marketplace in January brought 2,800+ delegates (8,000+ room nights), and the ongoing USBC Open Championships (a multi-month handicap bowling tournament with over $5 million in prizes) is expected to generate 140,000 room nights and $84 million in economic impact by the time it wraps in July.
- Reno-Tahoe International Airport (RNO) reported a 1.5 percent increase in passenger traffic during Q1.
Bowlfest
For those curious about the annual bowling event mentioned above:
- It features three divisions based on skill level (Regular: 182+ avg, Standard: 161-181, Classified: 160 or below) to allow all levels to compete fairly.
- The tournament runs for more than 100 days, often in a different city or special venue each year, transforming arenas into massive 40+ lane bowling centers.
- The 122nd edition is being held at the National Bowling Stadium in Reno, running from March 14 to July 19, 2026.
Vegas Tech Testing
Southern Nevada notched a win in its quest to build its reputation as a “living lab.” The remote-driven EV company Vay has expanded its Las Vegas fleet to 175 vehicles, with 80 percent of riders being locals rather than tourists, signaling a shift toward real-world mobility solutions.
Risk-Sharing Program at Risk
As the White House seeks to shave spending ahead of the midterm elections, housing lenders and state agencies are less than thrilled at the wind-down of a federal program that has, as of Q1 2026, helped finance more than 56,000 affordable rentals and a total of 247,000 affordable rental homes financed or refinanced at no cost to taxpayers.
The FFB Risk-Sharing Program is used by agencies in 34 states to reduce borrowing costs at a net revenue gain for the Treasury, but the White House’s fiscal 2027 budget reportedly “projects no new commitments” for the program. Some state housing agencies have said they already “are being turned away” on new applications.
Nevada does not participate in either FFB program:
Source: HUD As of Q1 2026
Critical Minerals Processing
The U.S. is shelling out billions to secure access to critical minerals essential to modern technology, from EVs to processing chips to smartphones to military systems and weaponry. But as a just-published article in The Conversation noted, successfully leveraging domestic mineral deposits and supply chains depends on whether the U.S. can also build or acquire the required technical expertise and industrial processing systems for large scale production.
Since the 1990s, the U.S. has lost much of its mineral processing capacity. During that period, activity shifted to China, where labor costs are lower and environmental regulations less constraining. These import graphs illustrate U.S. dependency on China and other nations for critical minerals:
Source: The Conversation As of 2023
Source: The Conversation As of 2023
Foreign dependency means the U.S. has also lost the technical expertise of decades past. Mining and mineral engineering programs produce only a few hundred graduates per year, and the number of accredited programs has declined. Additionally, many faculty members are nearing retirement.
Source: The Conversation As of 2023
Penny Wise
If you’ve seen a checkout counter sign saying the penny is being retired and asking for exact change or a chart showing whether your purchase total is being rounded up or down, you’re already aware that the penny is going to be a thing of the past.
Eight states have created legislation and issued guidance for retailers and consumers on how to handle penny-dependent transactions. Most of these states have either mandated or recommending that penny rounding be conducted symmetrically, rounding cash transactions up or down to the nearest 5 cents based on the final digit of the total transaction amount. (For those wondering whether these bills are a revenue grab by state governments, rounding is typically applied after sales tax has been calculated—so no.)
Recent news on what’s going on from the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) and news outlets in states where penny-wise bills have passed.
NCSL: Freshly Minted State Laws Ease Transition Away from the Penny
NCSL: With Demise of the Penny, States Prepare for Change
NBC Boston: As the penny starts going extinct, how do Mass. businesses round prices right?
NBC Miami: Say goodbye to the penny in Florida
KHON: Pennies on the way out leaves Hawaii businesses pushing for new legislation
On the Horizon
MarketWatch calendar:
