Fact Pack! On the Chopping Block: Clean Energy Credits
By Hightower Las Vegas and RCG Economics on May 20, 2025
Clean energy investment in Nevada has seen a substantial uptick since congressional Democrats passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022 — the state has so far received the most money in federal investments per capita, and between September 2023 and 2024 Nevada made the second-most clean energy investments as a percent of state GDP, according to the Rhodium Group and MIT’s Clean Investment Monitor.
That momentum may slow if a Republican-proposed rollback of key IRA tax credits makes it to President Trumps’s desk. In its present form, the measure would, among other things:
- Cut the consumer subsidy for rooftop solar
- Cut the tax credit for the purchase of American-made electric vehicles (at present, individuals or businesses can get a tax credit of up to $7,500)
- Phase down investment and clean energy production tax credits starting in 2029
- End the transferability of clean-energy corporate tax credits after 2027
- Phase out the manufacturing tax credit between passage and 2031 2029 —meaning companies such as Panasonic that produce battery cells will lose a credit worth $35 per kilowatt-hour produced)
- Create new “foreign entity of concern” provisions that would limit the ability of U.S. companies’ to source parts from or work with Chinese-owned companies
- Change the eligibility requirements for tax credits from when construction of a facility begins to when the facility is operational
Congressional Republicans argue that to hit the goal of $1.5 trillion in spending cuts, phasing down or eliminating IRA tax credits is necessary — in part because initial projections for the cost of IRA tax credits for some sectors and projects have more than doubled (estimates for the overall overage range from $700 billion to $1 trillion, depending on the source).
If passed, the cuts and curtailments would likely slow or stall wind farm, solar factory, and lithium mine expansion in Nevada and other states. Since the IRA passed, U.S. companies have spent about $321 billion in federal money with many projects still in the planning phases, according to data made public by the Clean Investment Monitor (CIM).
Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District — represented by Rep. Mark Amodei (R) — ranks fifth among all congressional districts in the amount privately invested between the IRA’s passage and the end of 2024: $6.6 billion in investment. Projects announced but not yet completed amount to an estimated $11.2 billion.
Expected effects of the tax credit cutbacks in Nevada include the possible slowdown of Thacker Pass, a decline in the availability of financing for other planned clean energy projects, and the scuttling of projects dependent on parts presently made only in China.
As the state with the only operating lithium mine in the U.S., Nevada has benefited from sizable federal loans for the build out and stands to gain by way of supply agreements with several large EV automakers. To what extent battery and car makers have been pursuing Nevada-mined lithium because of IRA tax credits is unknown, but clean energy trade groups fear a higher price point for domestic lithium may prompt manufacturers to seek the mineral from foreign sources.
Additionally, the Panasonic facility at the Tahoe-Reno Industrial Complex produces 40 gigawatt-hours’ worth of advanced lithium-ion batteries per year — the value of those IRA tax credits are estimated at $1.4 billion annually.
Also, according to a study by NERA Economic Consulting conducted for the Clean Energy Buyers Association, the repeal of IRA consumer tax credits would lead to higher electricity prices, estimating an increase of about 7 percent for Nevada households from 2026 to 2032.
Lithium Primer
Lithium reserves around the world come in a variety of forms, the largest of which are closed-basin brines (58 percent) represented by the green circles on the map below, pegmatites and granites (26 percent), and clay (7 percent), according to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) data collected by UFine.
Source: UFine
As of 2021
There are more than 39 million tons of lithium reserves worldwide, but the USGS estimates that only 13 million tons are “current economically recoverable.” And the timeline of mining projects is not exactly speedy: It can take a decade or more to get from permitting and construction to refining and manufacturing.
This detailed infomap from the British Geological Survey shows known deposits as of November 2021:
Source: Lithium Future
As of November 2021
(Fact Pack readers who may be a bit hazy on what they learned in science class may be interested to be reminded that lithium is the first metal in the periodic table.)
Auto Imports
GM brings in the most cars from foreign countries:
As of 2024
EV Sales
Global electric car sales nearly tripled over the past three years, after doubling between 2020 and 2021, driven by registrations in China. Registrations of new electric vehicles reached 17.3 million last year, compared to just 6.5 million in 2021, according to EV-volumes data cited by the International Energy Agency.
China continues to lead the growth in the electric car industry, with sales rising by more than 250 percent since 2021. Europe remains the second largest market for electric cars, with new registrations increasing by almost 40 percent in the past three years.
In the United States, sales reached 1.5 million for the first time, but the overall market share of electric vehicles remains far below that of China and many European markets.
As of 2024
Median Homebuyer Age
In 2010, first-time home buyers were behind half of all purchases. Last year, they accounted for just 24, percent. So says the team at Sherwood News, which reports that in 2024, the median age of first-time US homebuyers hit a record of 38 years — the highest since data collection began in 1981 — according to data from the National Association of Realtors.
The average age of an American homebuyer — first time or otherwise — also reached an all-time high of 56 years last year, a 44 percent increase from two decades ago, while for repeat buyers, the trend was even more stark: 61 years.
As of 2024
The homes Americans are buying have aged, too. According to a Redfin analysis, the median age of homes sold in the U.S. in 2024 rose to a record 36 years, up from 27 years in 2012.
As of 2024
Affordability has played a role, as older homes typically come with lower price tags — but that price gap is narrowing. In 2012, homes over 30 years old sold for 19 percent less than the median price. By 2024, that discount had shrunk to 15 percent.
As of 2024
Household Debt
Total household debt outstanding rose by $167 billion in Q1, or by 0.9 percent, from Q4, to $18.2 trillion, according to the Household Debt and Credit Report from the New York Fed. Year-over-year, total household debt grew by $516 billion, or by 2.9 percent, the smallest growth rate since Q1 2021.
As of 2024
(Note: Disposable income, as defined by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, is household income from all sources except capital gains, minus payroll taxes: So income from after-tax wages, plus income from interest, dividends, rentals, farm income, small business income, transfer payments from the government, etc.)
The debt-to-income ratio declined to 81.9. percent in Q1, the lowest ratio in the data going back to 2003, except for a period during the “free money” stimulus era.
As of 2024
This balance-sheet strength of the majority of U.S. consumers generally is healthy — 65 percent own their own homes, more than 60 percent hold equities, they own $11 trillion in money markets and CDs, and their debt burden is at historic lows.
Armed Forces Financing
The latest data shows the U.S. still tops the world in military spending:
As of 2024
Cremation Rates
Also from Sherwood News, the latest data from the National Funeral Directors Association (NFDA), the U.S. cremation rate has risen tenfold— up to more than 60 percent from 6.2 percent in 1974 — as Americans continue to shift away from traditional burials.
As of 2023
Investor Outlook
As of 5/10/25
On the Horizon
Mike PeQueen: It’s a light week in terms of economic data, but we still will have several Fed officials making public remarks — which could make news.
