Fact Pack! Personal Savings Surge
By Hightower Las Vegas and RCG Economics on June 3, 2025
Consumer spending slowed for April, posting just a 0.2 percent increase, while the savings rate surged to 4.9 percent, the most in nearly a year.
The personal consumption expenditures price index was expected to show a 2.2 percent annual rate in April. Actuals:
- The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure, increased just 0.1 percent for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.1 percent.
- Core inflation also was at 0.1 percent for the month, though it was higher on an annual basis at 2.5 percent.
Other indicators for week ending May 30:
As of 5/30/25
Job Sector Growth Spurts
The fastest growing job sector in the U.S. is Health Care & Social Assistance, adding nearly 193,000 jobs out of a total of approximately 464,800 (41.5 percent) over the 3-month period from February to April of this year.
Projections and rankings by organizations including USAFacts show several healthcare jobs are among the country’s fastest growing occupations, including:
- nurse practitioner (a +46.3 percent projected growth rate from 2023-2033)
- physician assistant (+28.5 percent) and
- physical therapist assistant (+25.4 percent).
The following job sector infographic from Visual Capitalist shows Q1 growth for other job sectors, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics data compiled and graphed on Charlie Bilello’s weekly blog:
As of April 2025
Construction Spending (U.S.)
The Census Bureau will release May residential construction data in a couple of weeks, so we wanted to note where things stood in April:
As of April 2025
- Building Permits — Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were 3.2 percent below the April 2024 rate.
- Housing Starts — Privately-owned housing starts in April were 1.7 percent below the April 2024 rate.
- Housing Completions — Privately-owned housing completions in April were 12.3 percent below the April 2024 rate.
Home Price Declines
More than half (26) states and D.C. saw seasonally adjusted price declines for homes in April as compared to March, as noted and listed below by Bill McBride over at Calculated Risk:
As of April 2025
The Office
Mark it: For the first time in more than two decades, more office space is being converted or demolished than built in the U.S., according to data from real estate services firm CBRE Group.
CBRE found that across the largest 58 U.S. markets, 23.3 million square feet of space is slated for demolition or conversion to other uses by the end of 2025, and the year will see only about 12.7 million square feet of new space added.
Fact Pack Co-publisher and economist John Restrepo:
The reduction in office space in major markets is being driven by the ongoing downtick in full-time on-site office attendance and the growing remote-work culture in the U.S. that began during the worst of the pandemic. Office vacancies in some metros — especially those with older, outdated office space — reached a record-high of 19 percent.
Vacancy rates and rents should begin to come into balance in the early quarters of 2026, as markets adjust to diminishing supply and increasing demand for space driven by employers calling staff back to the office and new hires being required to work on-site. That said, remote and hybrid work models are by no means coming to an end, as the net reduction in space ahead indicates.
Prime office locations in regions with steady economic activity have already seen close to full rent recovery, and building owners will continue to benefit as the job market tightens and office-leasing activity increases. That said, some of the markets that saw the highest vacancy rates and the biggest exodus of employees still may have a steep uphill climb, including the San Francisco Bay Area, Portland, and Dallas.
Sample data from Commercial Edge for assorted markets:
As of April 2025
As of 4/25/25
Notably, since 2016, office conversions to multifamily residences have generated approximately 33,000 apartments and condominiums, according to CBRE, and there are about 43,500 more units.
Headcount
Southern Nevada’s population grew to nearly 2.4 million residents as of last summer, up 5.4 percent, or nearly 123,000 people, from the summer of 2020, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
- North Las Vegas’ population jumped 12.6 percent during that four-year period to around 294,000.
- Henderson’s population grew by almost 10 percent to about 350,000.
- The City of Las Vegas grew by nearly 5 percent to around 679,000.
Nationally, the population grew by almost 2.6 percent in the same four-year period, to more than 340 million, per Census Bureau data.
National State Treasures?
If you missed it last month amid tariff and other federal program cuts, the Trump administration is also proposing to cut $1.2 billion (25 percent) from the National Park Service budget, in part by transferring sites to state and/or Tribal management. The list includes national monuments, historical parks, battlefields, and protected areas — but not the 63 federally-managed regions with “National Park” in their name.
Sites on the federal management chopping block that have been mentioned (so far) in news reports include the following Mountain West attractions:
- Valles Caldera National Preserve (New Mexico)
- Arches National Park (Utah)
- Florissant Fossil Beds National Monument (Colorado)
- Pinnacles National Park (California)
Octopi Overage
Fishing enterprises across the globe have in recent years been seeing the effects of high-pressure weather patterns and subsequent warming of marine waters, and 2025 is shaping up to be substantially worse — or better, depending on which sea creatures drive revenue streams.
The North Atlantic’s colder water layers are typically stirred by westerly winds, but smothered currents are resulting in much warmer seas — which Atlantic cod and winter flounder are not too keen on, but which this Bloomberg Green story notes is a boon for the sea bass and octopus populations.
One fishing outfit that operates in the English Channel and the waters off the southwest shore of England recently unloaded 48 tons of octopus in a single day — a 240-fold increase over the previous year.
Ecologists and economists alike are sounding the alarm about expected disruptions to ocean ecosystems and seafood-supported economies, including significantly reduced plankton counts and algae blooms.
The following graph shows average global ocean surface temperatures between 1880 and 2023 based on data collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA):
Average Global Sea Surface Temperature, 1880–2023
As of 2023
This NOAA infographic notes major anomalies around the world in April (click here for a larger, zoom-in view):
Below is a global ocean surface temperature map from SeaTemperature.org, a nonprofit that compiles and posts daily data from more than 7,000 locations and 200 countries around the world:
As of 6/2/2025
AutoBnB?
We’ve noted that robotaxis are in the works at a variety of startups, and now there’s not-small news in that arena: Tesla wants to create and run its own ride-hailing network offering riders a choice between its Cybercabs and privately owned Teslas. If Elon Musk gets his way, Tesla owners will soon be able to opt their cars into the rideshare platform, essentially renting them out, Airbnb-style.
Tesla is targeting June 12 to launch a small robotaxi pilot program in Austin, Texas, and Musk said last week the company will deliver its first FSD car to consumers by the end of June:
As of 5/28/25
Tesla is seeking to develop a hardware-software interface called Full Self Driving (FSD) that will eliminate the need for a user-supervised / driver-assisted vehicle, replacing it with car (and robotaxi system) capable of operating vehicles unsupervised.
Curiosity compelled us to check progress at Tesla competitors:
- Alphabet Inc.’s Waymo has logged more than 10 million rides in fully autonomous ride-hailing vehicles in Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, with near-term plans to expand to Austin and Atlanta.
- Amazon.com Inc.’s Zoox is operating shuttles with no steering wheels or pedals in San Francisco and had been doing the same in Southern Nevada since 2023 — until a minor collision with a passenger vehicle in April led to a voluntary recall of 270 of its autonomous vehicles and a halt to service in Las Vegas. The Las Vegas Review-Journal reported that the injury-free crash occurred as the robotaxi “was approaching the passenger vehicle, anticipating the occupied vehicle would proceed forward, but instead … came to a stop” (otherwise known as a rear-end collision). Team Zoox was no doubt dismayed but can take comfort in the fact that rear-end crashes are the most common auto accident type in Nevada and across the country — 29 percent of all crashes, according to a study by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).
As for Tesla, the firm’s race to own the robotaxi space involves more than software engineering and a slick interface with users: Heavy lobbying is afoot in Washington, D.C. to speed the creation of AV-friendly legislation and regulations. Notably, Tesla’s policy push involves persuading lawmakers to approve camera-only autonomy — no radar. Musk has claimed that Tesla’s robotaxi and AV camera systems will be safe and reliable and has said such systems are less expensive and therefore easier to scale.
Graphic representation of Tesla’s Cybertaxi; Source: Tesla
Adulting
The following graph created by CHARTR and based on Google search data underlines recent survey data showing that young adults in the U.S. today are struggling with “adulting” responsibilities as compared to 15 years ago:
Graphic source: CHARTR as of June 2025
Data source: Google Trends
In-N-Out on the Strip
We close this edition of Fact Pack with a nod to construction activity and an SFGATE report that confirms a 2024 announcement of interest to burger-loving Fact Pack readers: In-N-Out will be opening a flagship location next year at BLVD on the Las Vegas Strip. In-N-Out confirmed to news site SFGATE that the 8,000 square foot restaurant will:
- Have a 2,500 square foot patio
- Offer the chain’s second-largest seating capacity (after Barstow, which has a double kitchen in order to quickly accommodate hungry travelers).
Also: “a massive version of the company’s signature yellow arrow logo will adorn the top of the building … just like that larger-than-life neon sign from 1993, which still stands at Dean Martin Drive.” The building will be part of a BLVD, a new 27-acre, 400,000-square-foot mixed-use development complex that will include a variety of other dining options, major retailers, state-of-the-art convention space, several luxury hotels and residential options, and entertainment venues.
For those keeping track, In-N-Out currently has 18 locations across the Las Vegas Valley, including:
- Its first flag plant at 2900 Saraha Ave. on Nov. 17, 1992 — the company’s 80th store and first location outside of California.
- In-N-Out opened a second Las Vegas Valley location the very next day, on Nellis Avenue.
- Store No. 86, opened in 1993 on Dean Martin Drive just off the Strip, which at the time featured the company’s largest neon sign (55-feet wide).
As for BLVD, it’s a project by real estate development company LVXP, whose leadership team notably includes:
- CEO James R. Frasure, Jr. whose background includes successfully executing large-scale development projects
- Chief Construction Officer Nick Tomasino, who most recently served as Senior Vice President of Construction at Madison Square Garden Entertainment (where, among other things, he managed the construction of The Sphere)
BLVD will be a close to the newly expanded Las Vegas Convention Center, adjacent to Fontainebleau Las Vegas, and near Resorts World Las Vegas, and has been mentioned as a possible home for a new NBA franchise and arena. Rendering:
Source: Clark County
On the Horizon
Mike PeQueen: Friday’s employment report will be of interest to see if the last few weeks of tariff uncertainty have had an impact on how much confidence employers still have about the economy.
