Fact Pack! Fade, Flag, Fall

By Hightower Las Vegas and RCG Economics on February 24, 2026

Though we strive for accuracy and regret any need for a correction, we are glad to say we begin today’s Fact Pack with only our third after-the-fact edit in 13 years.

Last week, we said the National Federation of Independent Business’s Optimism Index had “dipped slightly month-over-month: from 99.1 in December to 99.3 in January”. The index did indeed dip 0.2 points, but we reversed the numbers: The decrease was from 99.3 to 99.1.

Other Dips and Dives and Declines

Several other key economic metrics in the U.S. saw fall-offs and fades in the last quarter of 2025 or in January over December:

The 12-month Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased to 2.4 percent in January, down from 2.7 percent in December 2025. Lower inflation is generally good for consumers, but the decrease also reflects a cooling in price momentum.

Both government spending and exports saw decreases in Q4 2025, acting as a drag on the economy heading into 2026.

Residential housing investment stalled in December as mortgage rates averaging over 6 percent persisted, and high home prices led to continued sluggishness in sales and new construction starts.

Real GDP growth decelerated to 1.4 percent (on an annualized basis) in Q4 2025, down from 4.4 percent in Q3. Though Q1 GDP is expected to recover somewhat as government functions normalize after the shutdown — the Atlanta Fed forecast as of Friday was 3.1 percent — underlying private sector growth remains moderated.

As of 2/19/26

Nevada

LAS air traffic declined by 9.7 percent year-over-year in the lead-up to Q1 2026, and Las Vegas visitation in January was down approximately 7 percent year-over-year.

The 12-month moving average for taxable sales in Nevada decreased 0.4 percent to 1.5 percent in January.

Construction employment in Nevada took a not-small hit.

In November, the sector lost 1,700 positions (seasonally adjusted), a 1.6 percent decline from October, and as a whole construction was the worst-performing sector in the state.

In December, construction employment decreased by another 1,200 jobs. Non-seasonally adjusted data showed a drop of 2,100 jobs, bringing the total construction workforce in the state down to 100,800.

Backlog indicators for contractors fell to an 8.0-month low in January, down from December levels. Though heavy civil engineering activity (casinos and infrastructure, including on A’s stadium) were stable, the residential and small-contractor segments shrank.

The construction industry’s downturn has been a tale of two cities: Clark County accounted for overwhelming majority of job losses while Washoe County remained comparatively stable. The data for late 2025 and early 2026 shows a stark contrast in regional resilience:

Metric (as of January 2026)	Clark County / LV Valley	Washoe County / Reno
Total Construction Jobs	~70,600	~19,200
Annual Job Count Change	-8,600 positions	-300 positions
Annual Growth Rate	– 10.9 percent	-1.5 percent
Dec. ’25 Monthly Change	– 1,500 positions	-100 positions

As of January 2026

Fact Pack co-publisher and economist John Restrepo:

The drop-off in Clark County was driven primarily by high inventory in the residential sector at a time demand was slowing. As of August 2025, the Las Vegas Valley had nearly 9,500 listings with a significant lack of offers, leading to fewer housing permits and starts as Q1 2026 approached. The Specialty Trade Contractors subsector — think plumbers, electricians, and flooring installers — saw the most significant losses, and most were concentrated in the Las Vegas valley.

In contrast, Washoe County has shown remarkable stability amid market volatility. The Reno-Sparks construction sector saw a dip in jobs of -1.5 percent, but employment ranks were bolstered by growth in education, health services, and industrial projects (warehousing/logistics). All in all, the Reno area added more jobs in 2025 than Las Vegas, a notable fact given the substantial size difference between the two metros. Reno also entered 2026 with a significantly lower unemployment rate (4.0 percent) than Las Vegas (5.2 percent).

Wharton on SCOTUS Tariff Ruling

In its 6-3 ruling on Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court decided that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the POTUS the power to unilaterally impose tariffs of indefinite scope. The decision did not explicitly order refunds, but the fact that tariffs were collected improperly has opened the door to refund claims.

Importers generally have 180 days after goods are liquidated to protest and request refunds from U.S. Customs and Border Protection. A Wharton graph shows the cumulative trajectory of IEEPA tariff collections between January 2025 and January 2026:

Source: Penn Wharton Budget Mode based on data from UITC’s DataWeb, U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s Trade Statistics, and the U.S. Dept. of the Treasury

Small Business Census Tool Update

If you own a small business or love someone who does, be aware that on February 25 the Census Bureau will release an updated version of its Business Builder and data tool. The release will include new 5-year demographic and economic data from the 2024 American Community Survey, metadata updates to its interactive research map, and a few bug fixes. 

Snapshot example:

Big GDPs

California has risen from 8^th to 4^th in the world in GDP, Texas is 9^th, and New York is 12^th. Sixteen other U.S. states are also in the mix with economic powerhouse nations:

As of 2024

Takeaways:

New York state’s economy ($2.5 trillion) is bigger than Canada’s (2.3 trillion).

The Lone Star State’s GDP ($2.9 trillion) is bigger than Italy’s ($2.6 trillion).

Florida’s economy ($1.9 trillion) is on par with Australia’s ($1.8 trillion).

As for Nevada, as of early 2026, the state’s annual GDP is approximately $215.3 billion in real terms (inflation-adjusted), with current-dollar figures around $284.1 billion on a seasonally adjusted annual rate. This ranks Nevada between 55th and 60th in the world, depending on how you slice things, placing it in the same tier as New Zealand and oil-rich nations including Iraq and Algeria.

Entity	2026 Projected GDP (Nominal)	Geographic/Economic Context
Nevada	~$284.1 billion	Major global tourism and mining hub
Algeria	~$284.9 billion	Large North African energy exporter
New Zealand	~$280.5 billion	High-income island nation; primary exporter
Iraq	~$273.9 billion	Major oil producer in the Middle East
Hungary	~$269.9 billion	Central EU manufacturing & tech center
Qatar	~$239.1 billion	Extremely high-wealth LNG exporter

Data sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, World Bank, and IMF

Projections as of January 2026

Fact Pack co-publisher and HighTower partner Mike PeQueen:

Nevada’s economy is most similar in structure to New Zealand’s. Both are advanced economies with populations in the 3–5 million range, and both rely heavily on specialized services— (tourism for Nevada, and tourism and agricultural exports for New Zealand.

Their per-capita GDP differs, however. Nevada’s is $85,840 compared to New Zealand’s $52,180. One could say the difference is a “Strip” vs. “Sheep” factor: The Las Vegas Strip operates with extremely high revenue-per-employee ratios compared to other industries, and the gold and Lithium stripped from Nevada by mining outfits generate high-paying job sectors. Though New Zealand has a robust tourism sector and film industry, a large portion of its GDP is tied to agriculture and dairy exports. These businesses require more labor and land to generate the same dollar of GDP when compared to a casino-resort or a gold mine.

Metric (2026 projected)	Nevada (NV)	New Zealand (NZ)
Total Nominal GDP	~$284.1 billion	~$280.5 billion
Population	~3.31 million	~5.38 million
Nominal GDP Per Capita	~$85,840	~$52,180
Rank	27th in the U.S.	32nd in the world

Data sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, World Bank, and IMF

Projections as of January 2026

Top Crops

Source: Visual Capitalist

As of 2024

Takeaways:

Nearly 2 billion metric tons of sugar cane were harvested in 2024, making it the world’s most harvested crop.

Third-place finisher rice is the staple food for more than half the world’s population.

Many of the world’s largest crops — including second-biggest-in-the-world corn — are used as much for animal feed and biofuels as for human consumption.

Table:

Source: Visual Capitalist

As of 2024

Power Sources

Renewables generate 67 percent of Canada’s electricity, compared to 22 percent in the U.S.

Source: Visual Capitalist

As of September 2025

Takeaway: Natural gas is still the top power source in most U.S. states, and hydroelectricity dominates in Canada.

Urban Giants

In many small countries, nearly 100 percent of urban residents live in a single city. In land mass giants including the U.S., China, and India, less than 10 percent live in the largest metro.